XAU/USD: Fundamental Analysis Report 17 March 2021

Mar 17, 2021

Current Trend: Waiting the Fed meeting minutes.

 Gold prices are showing moderate gains during today’s morning trading session, recovering to local highs since March 1, updated the day before.

Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for comments from the US Federal Reserve, whose minutes will be published today. It is expected that the American regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy, and will also reiterate its commitment to low interest rates for a long time. To assess the prospects for changing the vector of monetary policy, employment indicators are used, as well as the current dynamics of inflationary pressures in the market, taking into account the size of the economic stimulus program from President Joe Biden.

 Gold is slightly supported by stabilization of US bond yields, which, however, continue to remain near record highs.

 Support and Resistance

 In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the multidirectional dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains upward direction, but is located near its highs, which indicates risks of overbought gold in the ultra-short term. Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the uptrend in the short term.

 Resistance levels: 1741.02, 1753.57, 1769.59, 1800.00.

Support levels: 1720.00, 1703.07, 1687.15, 1675.00.

 Trading Tips

·         To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1741.02. Take-profit – 1769.59. Stop-loss – 1725.00. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

·         A rebound from 1741.02 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1720.00 may become a signal for new sales with the targets at 1687.15–1675.00. Stop-loss – 1741.02.


 Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Buy Stop

Entry Point: 1741.05

Take Profit: 1769.59

Stop Loss: 1725.00

Key Levels: 1675.00, 1687.15, 1703.07, 1720.00, 1741.02, 1753.57, 1769.59, 1800.00

 Alternative Scenario

 Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Sell Stop

Entry Point: 1719.95

Take Profit: 1687.15, 1675.00

Stop Loss: 1741.02

Key Levels: 1675.00, 1687.15, 1703.07, 1720.00, 1741.02, 1753.57, 1769.59, 1800.00