Weekly Forecasts: US NFP, Manufacturing and Services PMI Data in Focus
Heading into the first week of August, market participants are in store for a busy week with the economic calendar having major data releases. The first of which being during Monday’s US trading session where the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due. Market participants expect a softer release amidst the recession fears as compared to the last release. Apart from this, the major focus this week is the Non-Farm Payroll Jobs data which is due to release this Friday. Focus would mainly be on the number of jobs added, and the unemployment rate given the current state of the US economy. During the recent Federal Reserve press conference Powell was confident on the rising wages and jobs despite recession fears, so this data will be a key factor in identifying the current state of recession fears in the US economy.
Looking at the Australian economy, the RBA is set to raise its interest rates by 50bps. Even though the rate hike has been priced in but more emphasis would be on the statement released by RBA which would indicate future moves and the state of the Australian economy.
Gold has gained seriously bullish momentum since the Fed rate hike and the GDP release. Fears of recession has helped the yellow metal gain traction as traders flock towards safe haven assets. Along with that DXY also stalled its bullish run which in turn helped Gold. Technically looking at the D1 chart as of writing, the price stands at $1763 looking to make a move towards the next $1770 and beyond. Softer PMI numbers and NFP could aid the move but in long term bullish moves may be short lived with the rate hike cycle. On the flipside strong numbers from data release could start a bearish trend towards the first immediate support of $1750.