USD/JPY Technical Analysis Report 21 Jan 2021
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Over the span of four years, USD/JPY carved out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
Although December pursued terrain south of 104.62, January has so far attempted a modest comeback and is within close range of retesting 104.62.
104.62 ceding ground, however, throws light on support from 101.70, with a break uncovering trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Wednesday exhibited a one-sided market as USD/JPY settled a few pips off session lows.
Overall, though, buyers and sellers continue to square off between trendline resistance (111.71) and 103.08 support.
Beyond the aforesaid areas, demand is visible at 100.68/101.85 (encases monthly support at 101.70) and supply can be found at 106.33/105.78 (the 200-day simple moving average circles the lower side of the supply).
Also prominent is the RSI indicator recently crossing paths with resistance at 57.00, a level obstructing upside since July 2020.
The recent slide has placed demand at 103.46/103.58 (prior supply) under siege, with price tentatively spiking its lower side.
Clearance of 103.46/103.58 unlocks the risk of further declines today, targeting daily support at 103.08, followed by H4 demand at 102.95/102.82.
103.50 support made its way into the fight amid US trading on Wednesday. Thus far, however, buyers have yet to embrace the level.
While the higher timeframes show that a break of H4 demand at 103.46/103.58 (holds 103.50 within) points to 103.08 daily support, the H1 timeframe displays a Fib cluster between 103.24 and 103.32, accompanied by an AB=CD pattern.
With regards to the RSI indicator, the value crossed paths with oversold territory in recent hours and currently trades just ahead of 40.00.
103.50 support on the H1 is, from a technical standpoint, on shaky ground, having seen H4 demand at 103.46/103.58 come under fire. This may lead technical eyes towards the H1 Fib cluster (103.24/103.32) and AB=CD support today.
Failure to hold 103.24/103.32 points to daily support at 103.08 and the 103 level on the H1.