USD/CAD: Technical Analysis Report 07 April 2021

Apr 07, 2021

Current Trend: the fall in oil prices supports the asset 

The pair is strengthening amid falling oil prices. The price of “black gold” has started a downtrend since the beginning of March. This is due to the aggravation of the situation with COVID-19 in Europe and the USA. Due to structural constraints, cargo transportation and trade between countries suffer primarily, and the demand for fuel falls. The balance of power between buyers and sellers may be influenced by data on changes in US crude oil inventories, which will be published today at 16:30 (GMT+ 2). A slight decline in inventories is expected by 1.325 million barrels over the past week.

 The US currency has been bolstered by the prospects for a faster recovery in the US economy after the pandemic, thanks to an impressive pace of vaccinations. At the moment, the first dose of the drug has already been received by 32% of the country’s population. This, along with US President Joe Biden’s plan for $ 2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending, is fueling rumors of rising US inflation.

 Investors are beginning to doubt that the US regulator will keep ultra-low interest rates at 0.25% until 2023. Consequently, the main attention will be focused on today’s release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting (20:00 GMT+2), which will be carefully studied for changes in the regulator’s rhetoric towards tightening.

 Support and Resistance

 The pair bounced off the support level of 1.2510 and is now approaching the resistance at 1.2630, a breakout of which will allow growth to continue with the target at 1.2732.

Medium-term trend is upwards. The growth target is the level of 1.2635. Breakdown of the resistance will allow buyers to reach target zone 2 (1.2728–1.2710).

Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2732, 1.2845.

Support levels: 1.2510, 1.2403, 1.2264.

 Trading Tips

 Long positions may be opened above 1.2630 with the target at 1.2732 and stop-loss at 1.2590. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.2510 with the target at 1.2403 and stop-loss at 1.2560.


 Timeframe: Weekly

 Recommendation: Buy Stop

 Entry Point: 1.2635

 Take Profit: 1.2732

 Stop Loss: 1.2590

 Key Levels: 1.2264, 1.2403, 1.2510, 1.2630, 1.2732, 1.2845

 Alternative Scenario

 Timeframe: Weekly

Recommendation: Sell Stop

Entry Point: 1.2505

Take Profit: 1.2403 

Stop Loss: 1.2560

Key Levels: 1.2264, 1.2403, 1.2510, 1.2630, 1.2732, 1.2845