NZD/USD: Fundamental Analysis 25 March 2021

Mar 25, 2021

Current Trend: New Zealand dollar is trying to recover

 Today during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is growing slightly, correcting after a two-day “bearish” rally, which led to the renewal of local lows of November 24.

The instrument is supported by yesterday’s poor macroeconomic data from the US. In particular, the Markit Composite PMI for March fell from 59.5 to 59.1 points, which was worse than the negative forecast of a decline to 59.2 points. The data on the dynamics of orders for durable goods for February was also disappointing, which does not allow us to speak about the beginning of a phase of active recovery of economic activity.

 On Thursday, investors expect the publication of US Initial Jobless Claims. Also, during the day, the personal consumption expenditure index and renewed statistics on the dynamics of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 will be released.

 Support and Resistance

 On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is expanding but not as fast as the trading activity develops. The MACD indicator is going down, maintaining a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its minimum levels, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that NZD may become oversold soon.

 Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150.

Support levels: 0.6954, 0.6913, 0.6853.

 Trading Tips

 Long positions may be opened after the rebound from 0.6954 and the breakout of 0.7000 with the target at 0.7100. Stop loss – 0.6954. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after the breakdown of 0.6954 with the target at 0.6853. Stop loss – 0.7010.


 Timeframe: Intraday

 Recommendation: Buy Stop

 Entry Point: 0.7005

 Take Profit: 0.7100

 Stop Loss: 0.6954

 Key Levels: 0.6853, 0.6913, 0.6954, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150

 Alternative Scenario

 Timeframe: Intraday

 Recommendation: Sell Stop

 Entry Point: 0.6950

 Take Profit: 0.6853

 Stop Loss: 0.7010 

Key Levels: 0.6853, 0.6913, 0.6954, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150