USD/CAD: STRONG DATA SUPPORT THE PAIR
USD shows insignificant growth against CAD in today’s Asian session, again trying to consolidate above 1.2700. The day before, the instrument also showed an uptrend, but closer to the end of the afternoon session it lost a significant part of the gained advantage. USD was supported yesterday by strong macroeconomic data from the US on the dynamics of retail sales. In January, sales volumes increased by 5.3% MoM after a decline of 1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected “bullish” trend to appear, but counted only on +1.1% MoM. Excluding car sales, the indicator in January increased by 5.9% MoM, which is also significantly better than the market forecasts of +1% MoM.
Canadian statistics, also released on Wednesday, reflected a solid rise in consumer inflation in January. The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in the previous month. In the annual terms, the growth of the index accelerated from 0.7% to 1.0%.
Support And Resistance:
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate decrease. The price range is actively narrowing, reacting to the emergence of ambiguous dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows more confident growth, but is quickly approaching its highs, signaling about the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.
Resistance Levels: 1.2700, 1.2738, 1.2770, 1.2800.
Support Levels: 1.2659, 1.2622, 1.2589.
- To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.2738. Take-profit – 1.2800. Stop-loss – 1.2710. Implementation time: 1-2 days.
- The breakdown of 1.2659 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 1.2589. Stop-loss – 1.2700.
USD/CHF: UPWARD TREND
Today, during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is growing slightly, consolidating near the local highs since February 8, renewed yesterday. Yesterday, the instrument rose slightly in response to the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on US retail sales for January. However, data on industrial production for the same period were not so optimistic. For January, the indicator fell from +1.3% MoM (revised from +1.6% MoM) to +0.9% MoM. However, the real dynamics again was noticeably better than market expectations of +0.5% MoM.
On Thursday, traders are focused on the US Initial Jobless Claims, as well as the speech of the FOMC member of the US Federal Reserve Lael Brainard. In Switzerland, today January statistics on the dynamics of imports and exports will be released.
Support And Resistance:
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are rising moderately. The price range changes slightly but remains wide enough for the current level of market activity. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is showing a confident upward trend but is close to its highs, which reflects that USD is strongly overbought in the ultra-short term.
It is better to keep the current long positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.
Resistance Levels: 0.9000, 0.9028, 0.9050, 0.9074.
Support Levels: 0.8960, 0.8924, 0.8880, 0.8850.
- Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 0.9000 with the target at 0.9050. Stop loss – 0.8975. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
- Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 0.9000 and the breakdown of 0.8960 with a target at 0.8900. Stop
USD/JPY: THE INSTRUMENT IS CONSOLIDATING
USD is showing a slight increase against JPY in trading this morning session, trying to win back some of the losses suffered the day before. USD is still supported by the positive macroeconomic data from the US on the dynamics of retail sales, released on Wednesday, and many analysts associate the appearance of negative dynamics only with technical factors.
Today, investors are focused on the statistics on the dynamics of jobless claims in the US. The indicator is expected to continue its moderate decline, reflecting the gradual recovery in the US labor market after the pandemic. It is also worth paying attention to the publication of data on the dynamics of building permits in January and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February. Interesting statistics from Japan will appear only on Friday with the release of the inflation cut in January-February and Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for February.
Support And Resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands from above, pointing at a “bullish” potential in a short and medium term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into the descending plane, indicating strongly overbought USD in the ultra-short term.
The development of a full-fledged correctional trend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance Levels: 106.00, 106.25, 106.50.
Support Levels: 105.60, 105.33, 105.17, 104.75.
- The breakdown of 105.60 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 104.75. Stop-loss – 106.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
- To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 105.60, with the subsequent breakout of 106.00. Take-profit – 106.50. Stop-loss – 105.70.