Morning Market Review:
the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, correcting after
active growth last Friday and an uncertain start of trading this week. EUR is
consolidating below the level of 1.2100 again and is awaiting new drivers to
continue the upward rally. However, the market situation remains ambiguous, and
in the event of strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States, the
trend may change in the short term. Monday’s German statistics were ambiguous.
Thus, the index of business optimism from IFO for April rose from 96.6 to 96.8
points, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 97.8 points.
The indicator for assessing the current situation added one point and reached
94.1 points, while forecasts assumed its growth to 94.4 points. The index of
economic expectations for the same period decreased from 100.3 points to 99.5
with the forecast of 101.3 points.
Today during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading ambiguously, consolidating after a moderate increase yesterday, which was partly due to the appearance of poor US macroeconomic statistics. The volume of durable goods orders in the United States for March increased by 0.5% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM for the previous month. Analysts’ forecasts assumed growth of the indicator by 2.5% MoM. Orders for capital goods excluding the defense sector for the same period rose by 0.9%, which also was significantly worse than market expectations of 1.5% MoM. Investors are preparing for the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Although no changes in monetary policy are expected from the regulator, the department is reaching the threshold when it is necessary to decide on a strategy for its smooth tightening.
Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair was actively growing, having renewed local highs of March 18 amid the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Today’s Asian session is characterized by a correctional decline, and the price is preparing to retest the level of 0.7200 for a breakdown. Investors wait for the publication of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, hoping that they will help determine the prospects for the regulator’s monetary policy for the near future. Key statistics from New Zealand will appear only on Thursday, when the March data on the dynamics of imports and exports, as well as the index of business optimism from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, are released.
Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is actively growing, renewing local highs since April 20. After a protracted downtrend in the short/medium term, the dollar is finally attempting an upward correction. The reasons for the appearance of the “bullish” dynamics are technical factors, while investors expect the publication of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan announced its decision on rates. As expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate at –0.1%, and also left unchanged the size of the quantitative easing program, trying to keep the growth of the yield on 10-year notes. However, some signal for the market was that the rate decision was not made unanimously.
Today during the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating near the level of 1780.00 after a moderate increase yesterday, which allowed the instrument to slightly regain its losses of the end of last week. The dynamics of the rate are stabilizing, before the beginning of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will end with the publication of the final minutes and the decision on rates on Wednesday. Although the market is confident that the current monetary policy would maintain, comments from officials will be very important given the high pace of recovery in the US economy and rapidly growing inflation. In particular, the regulator may start with a gradual reduction in the volume of the quantitative easing program.