Technical Analytics Report

Fundamental Analysis - Morning Market Review 19 April 2021


 EUR is declining against USD rather actively during today’s Asian session, forming a potential corrective impetus, which can be supported by new drivers on the market. However, USD positions remain vulnerable against the background of the continuing decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, and the rather strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, published last week, were unable to reverse the downtrend. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the eurozone on the current account balance and the volume of production in the construction sector. Also, German Bundesbank Monthly Report is expected during the day.


 GBP is trading upwards against USD during today’s morning session, building on the “bullish” momentum it formed a week ago. GBP is taking advantage of the weak USD, which ignored strong macroeconomic publications from the US on jobless claims and retail sales dynamics. In addition, GBP looks favorably against the background of EUR, which is facilitated by the gradually improving epidemiological situation in the UK and an increase in vaccination rates. Macroeconomic publications from the UK provided some support to the instrument today. Rightmove House Price Index in April rose from +0.8% MoM to +2.1% MoM, which turned out to be better than the market average forecasts. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from +2.7% YoY to +5.1% YoY. Investors expect the publication of labor market data for February and March tomorrow. In particular, the data on the unemployment rate from the ILO in February and the March jobless claims deserve attention.


 AUD has shown slight gains against USD in trading in today’s Asian session, partly regaining losses last Friday, when the instrument showed corrective dynamics, retreating from monthly highs. Apart from the technical factors of profit-taking at the end of the week, some pressure on AUD was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from China, which reflected a noticeable weakening of the previous impetus for economic recovery. At the beginning of the week, the instrument is supported by upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Australia. HIA New Home Sales in Australia in March showed a sharp increase from 22.9% MoM to 90.3% MoM, which can be associated with an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the country. Investors await the publication of the latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, as well as the decision of the People’s Bank of China on the interest rate, scheduled for April 20.


 USD is declining against JPY this morning session, developing a fairly strong “bearish” trend in the short term and renewing local lows since March 24. USD expects the emergence of new drivers in the market, but for now it remains under the pressure of the declining yields of Treasury bonds. In turn, JPY is getting some support after the release of macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Monday. Japanese Exports went up by 16.1% YoY in March after the decline by 4.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 11.6% YoY only. Imports for the same period rose by 5.7% YoY, which turned out to be better than projected by 1.0%, but noticeably weaker than the dynamics of the previous month at the level of 11.8% YoY. Merchandise Trade Balance Total in March increased from JPY 215.9B to JPY 663.7B. Analysts predicted trade balance at JPY 490B.


 Gold prices are showing multidirectional dynamics during today’s Asian trading session, holding close to local highs since February 25. The instrument is supported by extremely vulnerable positions of USD, which almost completely ignored strong macroeconomic publications from the US last week. Additional pressure on USD is exerted by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which recently renewed their annual highs. Market participants also calmed down about the growing inflation in the USA, as the US Federal Reserve continues to argue that the rise in prices is due only to the high pace of recovery of the American economy and will not lead to a revision of monetary policy until the dates indicated by the regulator itself.

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