EUR/USD: Fundamental Analysis Report 24 March 2021

Mar 24, 2021

Current trend: EUR remains under pressure

EUR is stable against USD during today’s Asian session, consolidating around 1.1850 and local lows since March 9.

 Pressure on the instrument’s position is exerted by the general pessimistic sentiment of European investors, who are frankly disappointed with the epidemiological situation in the region, as well as with the decision of the authorities in a number of countries to extend the quarantine until mid-April. Europe is also lagging behind in terms of vaccination rates, as many countries have stopped using the drug from AstraZeneca since the beginning of the month due to reports that it may cause thrombosis.

 Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity and the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone for March. In addition, during the day, the European Central Bank will hold a regular meeting, which will precede tomorrow’s meeting of the European Council. Later in the day, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak.

 Support and Resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the surge of the “bearish” sentiment at the moment. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of “20”, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term. Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

 Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1950, 1.2000, 1.2022.

Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1800, 1.1744, 1.1700.

 Trading Tips

The breakdown of 1.1834 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 1.1700. Stop-loss – 1.1900. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

 To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.1834 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1900. Take-profit – 1.2000–1.2022. Stop-loss – 1.1834.


Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Sell

Entry Point: 1.1833

Take Profit: 1.1700

Stop Loss: 1.1900

Key Levels: 1.1700, 1.1744, 1.1800, 1.1834, 1.1900, 1.1950, 1.2000, 1.2022

 Alternative scenario

Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Buy Stop

Entry Point: 1.1905

Take Profit: 1.2000, 1.2022

Stop Loss: 1.1834

Key Levels: 1.1700, 1.1744, 1.1800, 1.1834, 1.1900, 1.1950, 1.2000, 1.2022