Daily Analysis Report 23 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 23 May '2022

EUR/USD

The euro begins the new week with modest gains versus the US dollar, reaching 1.0600 for a breakout and ending near the local highs established last Thursday. The weakness of the US dollar, which came under pressure with a notable adjustment in the yield on US Treasury notes, gave moderate support for the single currency at the start of the week. Last Thursday, analysts reported that the work on 10-year notes had dropped to a three-week low of 2.77 percent, down from 3.2 percent earlier. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) soft monetary policy, or the widening gap between the two rates, pressures the euro.

Representatives of the European Central Bank are beginning to favor launching a rate hike program, but the Bank’s official attitude remains cautious. The ECB, on the other hand, is unlikely to be able to stay on the sidelines for long, and the argument here is not about rate competition or exchange rates. Inflation in the eurozone is at an all-time high, and the European regulator risks following in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve, which for a long time dismissed record price growth as a fad.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the pound continued its climb by trading in tandem with the US dollar, testing the level of 1.2550 for a breakout and updating local highs from May 5. The increase of corrective mood for the US dollar against the backdrop of a noteworthy decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds has aided the strengthening of the British pound at the start of the week. Traders are also following the lead of reasonably upbeat macroeconomic data from the UK released on Friday, which outperformed negative expectations. Retail Sales rose 1.4 percent in April after dipping 1.2 percent the month before, despite economists expecting a 0.2 percent drop.

The index fell sharply by 4.9 percent on an annual basis after gaining by 1.3 percent in March, while prior market predictions indicated a more active loss of 7.2 percent. Retail Sales Excluding Fuel, up 1.4 percent month over month but down 6.1 percent year over year, compared to a forecasted decline of 0.2 percent month over month and 8.4 percent year over year. Housing prices in the United Kingdom were announced today. The Rightmove House Price Index climbed by 2.1 percent month over month and 10.2 percent year over year, which was somewhat higher than the prior readings of 1.6 percent MoM and 9.9 percent YoY.

NZD/USD

During the Asian session, the New Zealand currency strengthens versus the US dollar, building on last week’s strong “bullish” Trend. NZD/USD is attempting a breach above 0.6450, updating local highs from May 5. The instrument is in an uptrend against the backdrop of a US currency correction, accompanied by a steep decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds. The New Zealand currency is also rising due to news from Shanghai, where authorities expect to relax previously imposed quarantine restrictions beginning June 1. On the other hand, New Zealand’s macroeconomic backdrop remains relatively neutral.

According to data released on Friday, credit Card Spending fell from 3.4 percent to 1.1 percent in April, lower than experts’ average projection of 1.6 percent growth. New Zealand’s exports fell slightly in April, from 6.48 billion to 6.31 billion dollars. Still, imports fell even more sharply, from 7.06 billion to 5.73 billion dollars over the same period, resulting in a 584 million increase in the country’s Trade Balance, up from 581 million dollars a month earlier. Traders are anticipating the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, which will be revealed on May 25, and expect another 50 basis point increase in interest rates.

USD/JPY

During the Asian session, the US dollar is trading in a decline versus the Japanese yen, testing the level of 127.50 for a breakdown. USD/JPY is trading near the local lows of April 27, suggesting that the decline will continue in the short term. The corrective mood in the US currency and a reduction in the yield on US Treasury bonds have aided the formation of the “bearish” Trend. Although the most recent data on consumer prices in the US indicated the likely crossing of the growth peak, investors worry about further worsening inflation.

The US Federal Reserve’s policy has not altered significantly in recent months, and the regulator aims to hike the interest rate by another 50 basis points at its next meeting. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, is taking a wait-and-see approach, preferring to focus on managing the quantitative easing program. According to Japanese inflation data released on Friday, the National Consumer Price Index increased by 2.5 percent in April, up from 1.2 percent a month earlier. Market analysts predicted only a 1.5 percent increase.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are still rising moderately at the start of the week, updating local highs from May 12. The instrument is attempting a breakout around 1850.00, with no apparent evidence of a weakening trend. The fundamental driver of gold’s current rise is the weak dollar, under pressure since less-than-optimistic macroeconomic data last week. Furthermore, the dramatic drop in US Treasury yields is causing investors to react unfavorably.

Market participants are waiting for the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting to be released this week to see unambiguous evidence of the Central Bank’s “hawkish” monetary policy continuing. On Thursday, updated statistics on Q1 2022 will be released on US GDP dynamics. The prior estimate represented a 1.4 percent yearly decline in the US GDP.

May 20, 2022May 20, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 20 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 20 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency has been relatively stable against the US dollar, maintaining local highs since May 5. The instrument had seen active growth the day before, allowing the effects of Wednesday’s “bearish” trend to be leveled and bringing the euro to a high of roughly 1.0600. The EUR/USD was boosted yesterday by anticipation that the coronavirus quarantine in Shanghai will be lifted soon, allowing many businesses to resume normal operations and improving foreign trade dynamics.

Yesterday’s macroeconomic data from the United States put slight pressure on the dollar’s position. Initial Jobless Claims rose from 197 thousand to 218 thousand for the week ending May 13, above market estimates by 18 thousand. In May, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell drastically from 17.6 to 2.6 points, whereas economists had predicted a drop of about 16 points. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes released the day before also contributed to the single currency’s slight gain. The regulator warned of the rising dangers of a significant rise in inflation in the region in the study but maintained optimistic estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Furthermore, many ECB board members are gradually coming out favoring tighter monetary policy. Analysts believe the rate hike will happen in the late summer or early autumn.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound trades with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, stabilizing at about 1.2450. On Thursday, the pound exhibited strong growth, allowing it to entirely recover from its Wednesday loss. GBP/USD also briefly surged above 1.2500, updating local highs from May 5. The instrument’s rise was aided by the depreciation of the US dollar, which was under pressure due to the country’s bad macroeconomic statistics. Furthermore, corrective moods become more intense at the end of the week.

As a result, the market’s fundamental picture is shifting slightly, and investors are still frustrated by the UK’s consumer inflation dynamics numbers announced this week. The Consumer Price Index increased from 7% to 9% in April, falling just 0.1 percent short of market expectations. Inflation in the United Kingdom increased from 1.1 percent to 2.5 percent every month. Today’s traders are concentrating on British retail sales statistics. At the moment, investors are following the GfK Consumer Confidence numbers. The index dropped from -38 to -40 points in May, missing the estimate of -39 points.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is slightly lower against the US dollar, testing 0.7000 for a break. Corrective sentiments are strong again, and traders are not in a rush to make new purchases without the presence of additional drivers, following vigorous growth the day before, which allowed the instrument to renew local highs from May 9. In addition, the Australian dollar is under modest pressure following the release of an uncertain labor market report. In April, Australia’s employment rate climbed by barely 4,000 people after increasing by 20.3 thousand.

Positive dynamics were expected to accelerate to 30 thousand, according to analysts. Full-Time Employment increased from 19.9 thousand to 92.4 thousand, but a steep decrease in Part-Time Employment of 88.4 thousand prevented the final level from setting a new high. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.9 percent, while the participation rate fell marginally from 66.4 to 66.3 percent. The Australian dollar, in turn, is bolstered by positive news from China, where the arduous multi-week quarantine in Shanghai, which has slowed China’s economic recovery, is scheduled to end on June 1.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar has mixed characteristics against the Japanese yen, stabilizing near 127.70 and settling near April 27 lows. The demand for the yen is progressively increasing as interest in risk declines; yet, the dollar can provide significant competition in this regard. Furthermore, many investors favor the US dollar since the interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is large and expected to grow. As a result, the two countries’ inflationary risks remain disproportionate.

While the US regulator is concerned about rising pricing pressures, the Japanese regulator can afford to take a wait-and-see approach, focusing solely on the quantitative easing program. According to today’s inflation statistics in Japan, the increase in the National Consumer Price Index in April from 1.2 percent to 2.5 percent was much greater than market predictions of 1.5 percent. According to analysts, the country’s national CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8 percent after falling by 0.7 percent a month prior.

XAU/USD

Gold prices stabilized after a day of aggressive expansion that saw the instrument hit new local highs on May 12. The XAU/USD pair is pushing 1840.00 for a breakout, but market activity remains modest. On Friday, the macroeconomic calendar is empty; therefore, no big changes in the instrument’s dynamics could be expected. Experts attribute yesterday’s increase in gold to the dollar’s weakness against the backdrop of poor macroeconomic data from the United States.

Initial Jobless Claims climbed from 197 thousand to 218 thousand for the week ending May 13. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined from 17.6 to 2.6 points in May, with a minor rebound to 16 points expected. Existing Home Sales decreased 2.4 percent in April, compared to a 0.7 percent drop projected by investors.

May 18, 2022May 18, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 18 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 18 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency fell slightly versus the US dollar, stabilizing near 1.0530 after a significant surge the day before, owing to upbeat macroeconomic data from Europe. In Q1 2022, Eurozone GDP increased by 0.3 percent, exceeding the previous estimate of 0.2 percent. The European economy’s growth rate was also revised upward, from 5% to 5.1 percent. In Q1 2022, the Employment Change climbed from 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent.

News from China, where it appears that the quarantine, which was first implemented in Shanghai, is nearing completion, gave more support for the risky euro. The quarantine restrictions are expected to be lifted on June 1. Investors are currently focused on Eurozone consumer inflation numbers. Inflation is predicted to fall from 2.4 percent to 0.6 percent in April, while year-on-year inflation is expected to continue near record highs of 7.5 percent.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound trades with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, hovering near local highs from May 5 and resistance at roughly 1.2500. Strong news on the UK labor market for March-April boosted the pound the day before. In April, the change in claimant count was 56.9 thousand, down from 81.6 thousand a month earlier. Analysts predicted a drop of 38.8 thousand. In March, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses increased from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent, matching market expectations.

Average Hourly Earnings Bonus increased its growth from 5.6 percent to 7.0 percent, much higher than the market’s projection of a 5.4 percent decrease. With moderate projections, the ILO Unemployment Rate in the UK decreased from 3.8 percent to 3.7 percent in March. Investors are waiting for consumer inflation data for April to be released today. According to current projections, the indicator will rise from 7 percent to 9.1 percent. If market forecasts are correct, pressure on the Bank of England may rise dramatically, prompting the regulator to take more decisive action on monetary policy tightening.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar exhibits a small loss against the US dollar, correcting following considerable gains after the previous trading week. AUD/USD updated local highs from May 11 due to the “bullish” trend, having managed to consolidate above the psychological barrier at roughly 0.7000. Since the beginning of the week, the emergence of a rally has been aided by a corrective mood in the US currency. Still, the broader fundamental picture of the market has remained relatively unchanged.

News from China, where quarantine in Shanghai is nearing completion, provides more support for the Australian dollar. Officials anticipate that all quarantine restrictions will be lifted on June 1. The current macroeconomic statistics from Australia harm the instrument’s behavior. After increasing 0.33 percent in March, the Westpac Leading Index declined 0.15 percent in April. The Wage Price Index increased by 0.7 percent QoQ and 2.4 percent YoY in Q1 2022, which was somewhat below market expectations of 0.8 percent QoQ and 2.5 percent YoY, respectively.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar falls slightly against the Japanese yen, testing 129.00 for a break. USD/JPY is trading flat in the short term, unable to develop the corrective momentum established last Friday. During the Asian session, investors are focused on a set of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japan’s GDP fell by 0.2 percent in Q1 2022 after growing by 0.9 percent the previous quarter. At the same time, the indicator outperformed expectations, which predicted a 0.4 percent contraction in the economy in quarters.

The Japanese economy slowed by 1% in yearly terms after increasing by 3.8 percent the previous quarter. The actual dynamics were much better than the projected 1.8 percent reduction. In March, the volume of Industrial Production in the country did not change from February readings, showing a monthly increase of 0.3 percent and an annual reduction of 1.7 percent.

XAU/USD

During the morning session, gold prices fell slightly, forming a corrective push that began the day before when quotes updated local highs from May 12. Under pressure from the surging US dollar, gold is ready to challenge psychological support at 1800.00 once more. Tuesday’s data on retail sales trends in the United States exceeded market forecasts. Retail sales volumes fell from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent in April, while economists projected a 0.7 percent drop. For the same period, retail sales excluding automobiles fell from 2.1 percent to 0.6 percent, which was twice as excellent.

The Retail Sales Control Group fell from 1.1 percent to 1.0 percent in April, while predictions predicted a significant drop to 0.5 percent. As a result, sales numbers do not yet indicate a significant decrease in domestic consumer activity. This mitigates some of the risks investors are concerned about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening pace slowing down.

May 17, 2022May 17, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 17 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 17 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency exhibited mixed trading against the US dollar, consolidating near 1.0440 and anticipating new market drivers. The euro exhibited a sluggish increase the day before, maintaining Friday’s momentum, which allowed the instrument to recover from its lowest level since January 2017. Meanwhile, the news and macroeconomic backdrop remained bleak, and the reasons for the instrument’s increase were primarily technical. Yesterday’s European data disappointed some purchasers, but they had little impact on the market overall.

In March, the eurozone trade deficit was 17.6 billion euros, which was much higher than the previous month’s figures (-11.3 billion euros) and projections of a 6.6 billion euro improvement in dynamics. Investors are currently concentrating on the most recent data on GDP dynamics in the euro region for Q1 2022. According to previous figures, the European economy rose by 0.2 percent QoQ and 5% YoY. Quarterly employment numbers will also be released during the day, and a speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), in which the official is expected to alter the regulator’s projections for the direction of monetary policy shortly.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound is uptrending against the US dollar, developing a corrective signal generated after last week. The instrument is looking for a breakout around 1.2335, which would update local highs from May 11. The pound’s current rise is mostly due to technical issues, while the US dollar’s holdings remain relatively strong versus the British currency and across the market. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, delivered negative news to the news agenda yesterday.

Speaking before the British Parliament, the official stated that the prospect of high inflation remains substantial. The country’s authorities are still unable to control its rapid expansion due to various external causes. Aside from record-high energy prices, there is also a new problem: the food crisis. Ukraine and Russia are major wheat and other grains suppliers to European markets. Still, there is a risk of significant supply disruptions due to a special military operation in Ukraine and a flurry of sanctions against the Russian economy, leading to a rapid rise in prices and acute food shortages in some areas. India’s announcement that it will restrict wheat exports to suit domestic needs exacerbates the problem since record heatwaves are expected to cut crop output.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD renews local highs from May 11, despite a steep drop yesterday due to poor macroeconomic data from China. China’s retail sales plummeted unexpectedly by 11.1 percent in April, following a 3.5 percent drop the month before, despite forecasts expecting a 6 percent drop. The rate of Industrial Production in the country fell by 2.9 percent in April after growing in March.

Positive dynamics were expected to stay at 0.7 percent in the estimates. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes supports the Australian dollar (RBA). The regulator remained upbeat about inflation forecasts, predicting that it would return to target levels once external concerns stabilized. According to RBA representatives, consumer prices may decrease to the top limit of the specified range of 3% by mid-2024. According to the RBA, interest rates are expected to rise to 1.5 percent by the end of 2022 and 2.5 percent by the end of 2023.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to trade cautiously bullishly against the Japanese yen, holding just below the psychological level of 130.00, where trading began this week. The Japanese yen is attempting a weak corrective rise, but the strength of the dollar’s “bulls” prevents it from expecting a more or less sustained rise. Furthermore, disappointing Chinese data released earlier this week had a big impact on the yen’s stance, as it represented the weakening of economic prospects across the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the yen receives little support from Japanese macroeconomic data.

According to data issued the day before, the Producer Price Index rose 1.2 percent in April after climbing 0.9 percent the month before. In yearly terms, the Producer Price Index increased from 9.7% to 10% during the same period, beating expectations of a decrease to 9.4%. Today, investors are excited about a 1.3 percent increase in the Japanese Tertiary Industry Index in March, much better than analysts’ expectations of 0.4 percent growth.

XAU/USD

Gold prices stabilized following a significant corrective rise on Monday, which saw the instrument rise above the psychological threshold of 1800.00 for the first time. The market’s reaction to the gradual increase in risk sentiment saw XAU/USD go below this level for the first time in 14 weeks yesterday. In addition, as the US Federal Reserve begins a long-awaited cycle of hiking interest rates, market participants increasingly prefer the dollar as a safe-haven asset, properly expecting additional interest income.

Investors are focusing on China’s macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and industrial production dynamics in April, which were released yesterday. The US Fed’s James Bullard, Loretta Mester, and US regulator Jerome Powell are scheduled to speak today during the day.

May 13, 2022May 13, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 13 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 13 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro exhibited poor growth versus the US dollar, correcting following a significant drop the day before, causing the single currency to hit new lows for the instrument since January 2017. The EUR/USD is attempting to consolidate above 1.0400, but insufficient catalysts are for the single currency’s development. During the day, investors will focus on the release of statistics on the dynamics of industrial production in the eurozone for March. Still, current analyst projections imply that the euro will not be able to gain any support.

However, considering that the US macroeconomic calendar is similarly neutral, the instrument could increase exclusively due to technical causes. The dollar is still in great demand due to concerns about the global economy’s development prospects. Consumer inflation figures provided by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that prices might be peaking. However, they are still high enough to prevent the US Fed from relaxing monetary tightening pressure.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hit its lows since May 2020 as the British pound exhibits an upswing in trading, correcting following another loss the day before. The pound’s rise on Friday is attributable to strengthening technical reasons, while the fundamental picture shifts slightly but still contributes to the continued depreciation of the British currency. The macroeconomic data issued the day before in the United Kingdom disappointed, raising fears of a probable recession. The country’s GDP decreased by 0.1 percent in March, despite analysts expecting it to rise by 0.1 percent.

In quarterly terms, growth dropped from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent, which was worse than estimates of 1.0 percent, while in annual terms, the economy is still displaying positive dynamics, rising from 6.6 percent to 8.7 percent, just shy of the predicted value of 9 percent, according to the latest data. Although preliminary market forecasts projected a favorable trend at the level of 0.1 percent, the pace of Industrial Production in the country fell by 0.2 percent in March after falling by 0.3 percent the month before.

AUD/USD

During the morning session, the Australian dollar is active corrective growth versus the US dollar, recovering from a severe fall the day before, which caused the AUD/USD to approach record lows since June 2020. Investors close short positions, causing a technical correction as the instrument’s fundamental picture shifts somewhat. The US dollar remains in strong demand as a safe-haven currency. Investors anticipate a further downturn in the global economy, which could be exacerbated by the world’s leading central banks’ “hawkish” stance.

Consumer inflation in the United States may have reached its high, but the reduction has been slower than analysts had predicted. There is no need to expect a swift shift in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. If interest rates rise in the future, the American economy’s growth prospects are likely to deteriorate. Weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia are now exerting pressure on the Australian currency’s position. After gaining 3.9 percent in March, HIA New Home Sales dipped 1.2 percent in April.

USD/JPY

In Asian trade, the US dollar recovers against the Japanese yen following a sharp drop the day before, leading to local lows re-establishing from April 27. On Thursday, the dollar displayed a negative trend versus the Japanese yen, one of the few currencies on the market. They relate this behavior to the US Federal Reserve’s “hawkish” policies, which analysts believe may slow down the country’s economic growth shortly. The Bank of Japan, for its part, is currently waiting to see what happens and has not yet begun an interest rate hike cycle.

Existing inflationary threats have a favorable impact on the Japanese economy, prone to deflationary occurrences, making the yen an attractive safe-haven currency, notwithstanding the widening interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. The yen was also helped by positive macroeconomic data from Japan released yesterday. The Eco Watchers Current Situation indicator increased from 47.8 to 50.4 in April, while the Eco Watchers Outlook index increased from 50.1 to 50.3.

XAU/USD

During the Asian session, gold prices are recovering, retreating from the local lows of February 7, which were updated at the start of Friday’s trade. Technical corrective factors have aided the rise in quotations, while the fundamental picture still favors the dollar’s future. Despite the crossing of the peak, US inflation numbers reported in the last few days indicated that prices are still rising at an alarming rate. This may necessitate the US Federal Reserve strengthening price-control measures, such as raising interest rates.

The chances of a 75 basis point hike at the regulator’s June meeting are still slim but don’t forget that the US Federal Reserve has other options. The department may, in particular, speed up the implementation of the quantitative tightening program

May 12, 2022May 12, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 12 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 12 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro traded with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, stabilizing near 1.0500. The euro attempted to increase the day before, aided by the President of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upbeat words, but the “bulls” failed to consolidate on fresh local highs. EUR/USD eventually fell back into the “red” zone, maintaining the short-term trend of flat dynamics. The European Central Bank is expected to conclude the asset buyback in early Q3 2022, after which it would begin hiking interest rates.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said this the day before in a speech in Ljubljana. Much will, however, rely on the outcome of the military confrontation in Ukraine, which is still quite dangerous. The instrument’s dynamics were unaffected by macroeconomic information from Europe released on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index in Germany increased by 0.8 percent in April, which was in line with market predictions. Inflation hovered at about 7.4% on an annual basis.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound is trading in a downtrend against the US dollar, testing 1.2200 for a break and updating local lows since May 2020. The pound is again under pressure from the surging dollar, which continues to enjoy unwavering support despite a deteriorating global economic outlook. Furthermore, the instrument is under pressure from weak macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom, which reflect the risk of a recession in the country. The market is currently anticipating the release of March data on UK GDP trends and Industrial Production volumes.

The day before, investors were led by releasing US consumer inflation data for April, which is still one of the primary guiding principles for the US Fed when deciding on monetary policy. In April, the Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy surged from 0.3 percent to 0.6 percent, exceeding analysts’ predictions of 0.4 percent. The index slowed from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, exceeding market expectations of 6.0 percent.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar steadily fell against the US dollar, testing 0.6900 for a break. Since June 2020, the AUD/USD has been breaking new lows. The instrument had sought to strengthen the day before, with solid data from China providing support; however, with the start of trading in the US session, the “bulls” swiftly lost all their gains, reacting to the release of April consumer inflation data in the US. In April, Chinese figures showed that the Consumer Price Index increased from 0% to 0.4 percent, twice as high as market expectations.

China’s annual inflation rate increased from 1.5 percent to 2.1 percent, exceeding expectations of 1.8 percent. Inflation in the United States has accelerated from 0.3 percent to 0.6 percent (excluding food and energy). Meanwhile, in May, Consumer Inflation Estimates in Australia (a Melbourne Institute indicator) declined from 5.2 percent to 5.0 percent, exceeding analysts’ expectations by 0.2 percent.

USD/JPY

During Asian trade, the US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen, maintaining the corrective trend established the day before. The USD/JPY is testing 129.60 for a break, retreating from the record highs set at the start of the week. The macroeconomic figures from Japan help to strengthen the Japanese currency. In April, bank lending increased by 0.9 percent after increasing by 0.5 percent. The indicator was predicted to decelerate to 0.4 percent, according to analysts.

In April, the Eco Watchers Current Situation Index increased from 47.8 to 50.4 points, above estimates of 42.9 points. For the same period, the Eco Watchers Outlook increased from 50.1 to 50.3 points, which was higher than analysts’ predictions of 47.4 points. Finally, the non-seasonally adjusted Current Account jumped from 1648 billion yen to 2549 billion yen in March.

XAU/USD

During the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating near 1850.00. The instrument anticipates the appearance of fresh growth drivers; nevertheless, the “bulls” are constrained by the strengthening US currency, which is bolstered by the expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The April inflation numbers were issued in the United States yesterday, indicating a slight easing of price pressure in the country but still indicating considerable inflation threats.

Such information is unlikely to significantly impact the US Federal Reserve’s present intentions to raise interest rates and begin a quantitative tightening program. The instrument is bolstered by the continued geopolitical concerns in Eastern Europe, where Russia continues to execute a special military campaign on Ukrainian territory despite a barrage of sanctions. Markets are also reacting positively to news from China, where a two-month quarantine in Shanghai is nearing its end.

May 11, 2022May 11, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 11 May ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 11 May '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro rose slightly versus the US dollar, trading near 1.0540 and developing a flat trend in the short term. Trading has been exceedingly murky since the start of the week, preventing the single currency from forming any pronounced patterns or even moving away from its record lows set in January 2017. Market investors are anxious about the chances of global economic recovery as the situation in Ukraine escalates and rising inflationary threats. Demand for the risky euro remains low. The latter are pressuring the world’s central banks to tighten monetary policy faster, which will only slow the recovery and inevitably negatively impact.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently waiting to see what happens; however, some ECB officials are optimistic about the likelihood of initiating a rate hike this summer. The European macroeconomic numbers presented on Tuesday were confusing. In May, the German ZEW Current Situation Survey revealed a drop from -30.8 to -36.5 points, which was worse than experts’ expectations of -35 points. At the same time, the ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment for the euro area improved from -43 to -29.5 points, beating expectations of -41 points.

GBP/USD

The British pound is rising against the US dollar, attempting to rebound from a four-session slide that saw it hit fresh lows not seen since June 2020. Extremely low demand for riskier assets puts downward pressure on the instrument, pushing the US dollar to new highs. Despite the Bank of England’s efforts to calm the situation, experts fear that a sharp increase in interest rates will significantly negatively impact the British economy’s recovery, possibly leading to recession. Meanwhile, the energy situation remains precarious as the EU and the UK continue to ratchet up sanctions against Russia’s economy in response to a special military campaign in Ukraine.

The figures released the day before added to the pressure on the British pound. Thus, BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales fell by 1.7 percent in April after falling by 0.4 percent the month before, while analysts projected an acceleration of negative dynamics but a little smaller drop of –1.6 percent. Investors will be watching for updated statistics on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q1 2022 tomorrow.

AUD/USD

After a steep drop in quotations over the previous four trading days, the Australian dollar shows corrective growth against the US dollar. The instrument has updated record lows since July 2020 due to the “bearish” behavior, dropping below the threshold of 0.7000. On Wednesday morning, positive inflation statistics from China gave significant support for the instrument. After a month of zero growth, the country’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4 percent in April. A gain of 0.2 percent was forecast by investors. Inflation rose from 1.5 percent to 2.1 percent annually, beating market expectations of 1.8 percent.

Industrial inflation dropped slightly from 8.3 percent to 8.0 percent during the same time but was still better than projected at 7.7%. In contrast to the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, the Chinese economy, which is in a tough position due to forced quarantine limitations, is demonstrating a reasonably active dynamic, allowing the People’s Bank of China to keep room for maneuvering (ECB). In contrast, the Australian statistics released yesterday leave a lot to be desired. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.6 percent in May, after decreasing by only 0.9 percent.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar is trading flat with the Japanese yen, stabilizing near 130.35 and looking for new growth factors. The US consumer inflation numbers, which are likely to be released today, may provide a new signal for buying. According to current projections, the consumer price rise is expected to decrease sharply in April, from 1.2 percent to 0.2 percent. Inflation may moderate from 8.5 percent to 8.1 percent annually. New inflation data will allow the US Fed to assess the chances for further tightening monetary policy, albeit it is evident that the market’s most “hawkish” projections have yet to materialize.

The Fed has been sluggish in boosting interest rates or reducing its balance sheet, allowing it to respond more precisely to shifting economic conditions. However, this technique comes with a price, and many analysts believe that the rate-hiking process began too late. Today’s macroeconomic statistics from Japan had no discernible effect on the instrument’s behavior. The Coincident Index increased from 96.8 to 97 points in March, which was only 0.2 points lower than market estimates. The Leading Economic Index increased from 100.1 to 101 points, above expectations of 100.4 points.

XAU/USD

After a distinctly “bearish” start to the week, gold prices stabilize near 1840.00. The instrument is currently trading at the local lows of February 11, 2022, and the news backdrop continues to support the US dollar. The USD index is near all-time highs, owing to extremely low demand for riskier assets. Investors are concerned about the likelihood of a worldwide economic slowdown as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalates and the quick rise in inflation in Europe and the United States. Immediate predictions are likewise negative, considering that the conflicting parties have lost all interest in peace talks, and Western countries are merely intensifying sanctions pressure on Russia’s economy.

April 25, 2022April 25, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 25 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 25 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro displayed a mild decline versus the US dollar, adding to the “bearish” momentum that emerged after last week, when the euro retreated from its local highs of April 7. The prior causes of a gradually strengthening dollar against deteriorating global economic prospects impose pressure on the instrument. Despite the enormous sanctions put on Russia’s economy by Western countries, the armed war in Ukraine is growing. Meanwhile, the EU is drafting a new round of sanctions, the sixth in a row, that will most likely be published on April 25-29 and will considerably decrease the potential of Russian energy supplies.

For European countries, the question of oil and gas imports continues to be excruciating. Nonetheless, obvious trends have emerged, and the EU is gradually reducing its energy dependence on Russian resources, despite pressure from the White House administration. This, in turn, leads to an upward correction in energy costs, pushing up the region’s already high inflation. Even though the data, in general, was not disappointing, the macroeconomic statistics from Europe released last Friday had no discernible impact on the instrument’s dynamics. In April, the eurozone Composite Manufacturing PMI increased from 54.9 to 55.8, exceeding expectations for a drop to 53.9 points. The Services PMI improved from 55.6 to 57.7 over the same period.

GBP/USD

At the start of the week, the British pound was trading in a decline, testing the psychological level of 1.2800 for a break. The pound is forming a strong downward trend, which began at the end of last week in response to the release of poor macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. After decreasing 0.5 percent in February, UK retail sales plunged 1.4 percent in March. Analysts predicted only a 0.3 percent drop. Sales volumes declined from 7.2 percent to 0.9 percent on an annual basis, despite market expectations of a 2.8 percent growth. Data from the GfK Consumer Confidence in the UK in April added to the instrument’s pressure.

The index dropped from -31 to -38 points, significantly worse than experts’ predictions of a drop to -33 points. Finally, the Markit Services PMI declined from 62.6 to 58.3 points in April, despite experts expecting a drop to 60 points. As a result of the UK’s extraordinarily bad macroeconomic data, investors have lowered their expectations for the Bank of England to further tighten macroeconomic policy.

AUD/USD

During the morning session, the Australian dollar continued to fall, hitting local lows on February 28. Since last Thursday, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the need to raise interest rates by 0.50 percent all at once at the May meeting, the instrument has been in a downward trend. Furthermore, the regulator may implement a quantitative tightening program, which its representatives have discussed extensively. The official’s comments were interpreted by investors as an additional signal to reduce risky positions, resulting in considerable strengthening of the US currency.

Although the data turned out to be rather good in general, the macroeconomic statistics issued on Friday from Australia failed to slow the development of the “bearish” dynamics for the instrument. The Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI increased from 57.7 to 57.9 points in April, compared to experts’ expectations of 57.8 points. The Services PMI improved from 55.6 to 56.6 points simultaneously, although the market was expecting a significantly larger gain to 58.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI increased in April from 55.1 to 56.2.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar remains flat versus the Japanese yen, stabilizing between 128.50 and new record highs set in the middle of last week. The US currency’s position is still supported by low-risk demand; however, the level of 130.00 appears to be a barrier for which there are few present market drivers. Japan’s macroeconomic numbers, issued at the end of last week, were confusing. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index increased by 1.2 percent in March after increasing by 0.9 percent the previous month. Analysts predicted a 1.3 percent increase. Simultaneously, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.1 to 53.4 points in April, falling short of the predicted 55.7 points. The yen is bolstered modestly by today’s Japanese macroeconomic data. In February, the Coincident Index rose from 96.3 to 96.8 points, when analysts had predicted a drop to 95.5 points.

XAU/USD

During the morning session, gold prices decrease, forming a confident short-term downtrend. The instrument is looking for a breakdown at the level of 1915.00, updating local lows from April 6. The potential of future monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve continues to put pressure on the asset. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the regulator’s intention to raise the interest rate by 0.50 percent at its May meeting.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve may begin a quantitative tightening program in May, although the need for such a program has been debated for more than a month. As a result, the demand for gold is bolstered by investors’ general pessimism, stoked by the deterioration of global economic prospects. Inflation, which has reached new highs in several locations due to the rapid rise in energy prices, is still a serious issue.

April 22, 2022April 22, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 22 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 22 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During today’s Asian session, the European currency traded flat against the US dollar, maintaining near 1.0840. The single currency had seen an active rise the day before, updating local highs from April 7, but by the end of the midday session, the “bulls” had given up part of their gains. The words of Luis de Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), who made a “hawkish” statement about the potential of hiking the main interest rate in July, aided the creation of a significant “bullish” momentum. At the same time, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, expressed the opposite viewpoint last week, decreasing the chance of a rate hike shortly.

As the region’s economy faces high inflation, the ECB will have to contemplate a monetary tightening scenario. Still, it is critical not to jeopardize the region’s economic recovery in the post-coronavirus period. Statistics on consumer inflation in the eurozone supported the single currency today. In March, the ECB reduced its Core Consumer Price Index from 3.0 percent to 2.9 percent. At 1.2 percent, the monthly core inflation rate remained constant. The overall rate of consumer price growth in March was 7.4%, which was 0.1 percent lower than earlier projections.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound traded with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, indicating that the week will close with little changes. The GBP/USD pair is currently probing 1.3020 for a break while waiting for new drivers to emerge on the market. Investors are currently concentrating on statistics on the dynamics of retail sales in the United Kingdom. Given the growing consumer prices and the gloomy prospects for further economic recovery, the data is expected to be negative. During the day, Markit will provide data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors for April. According to forecasts, the Services PMI will drop from 62.6 to 60 points, while the Manufacturing PMI will drop from 55.2 to 54.0 points.

The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is anticipated to speak at the start of the American session. Meanwhile, traders can get British figures from the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey. The index dropped from -31 to -38 points in April, much worse than the projected drop to -33 points.

NZD/USD

During the Asian session, the New Zealand currency actively depreciated versus the US dollar, forming a strong “bearish” momentum that began the day before. NZD/USD is pushing 0.6700 for a break, and local lows from February 28 are updated. The instrument is again under pressure from the rising US dollar, which is bolstered by predictions of an early tightening of the US Fed’s monetary policy. During its May meeting, the regulator expected to immediately boost the interest rate by 50 basis points. In addition, the Fed is likely to launch a quantitative tightening program that will help reduce its balance sheet. The macroeconomic numbers issued by New Zealand put additional pressure on the NZ dollar.

In Q1 2022, the Consumer Price Index increased from 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent, only 0.2 percent below market estimates. Inflation rose to a new all-time high of 6.9% annually, despite economists forecasting a rise to 7.1 percent.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen, testing the level of 128.00 for a break. USD/JPY has been trading with multidirectional dynamics recently, but the dollar is still holding near record highs set on April 20. Relatively upbeat macroeconomic indicators from Japan give moderate support for the Japanese yen today.

In March, the National Consumer Price Index increased from 0.9 percent to 1.2 percent, only 0.1 percent below analysts’ expectations. Inflation in the country increased from 0.6 percent to 0.8 percent when fresh food prices were excluded. The PMI for Jibun Bank Services was similarly favorable. The index unexpectedly jumped from 49.4 to 50.5 points in April, despite market expectations for a drop to 49 points. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.1 to 53.4 points, against expectations of a rise to 55.7 points.

XAU/USD

During the Asian session, gold prices are held near 1950.00, indicating that the week would close with a slight decrease. The present geopolitical dangers in conjunction with Russia’s conduct of a special military operation on Ukrainian territory continue to support the instrument. Furthermore, against the backdrop of rising inflationary pressures, demand for precious metals as a hedging instrument is increasing. On the other hand, the world’s central banks have begun rapidly rising interest rates, making gold less appealing because it does not provide interest revenue.

The market anticipates a 50-basis-point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in May. Today, investors will be looking at a set of macroeconomic indicators from Markit for April on company activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Analysts’ projections are neutral. Therefore major movements in the US currency against a neutral backdrop are unlikely.

April 21, 2022April 21, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 21 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 21 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency showed a small decline against the US dollar, correcting after a relatively active rise the day before, which saw the instrument reach fresh local highs for the first time since April 14. In general, the market situation is stable, and investors are only reacting to the release of mixed macroeconomic information in Europe and the United States. As a result of the growing tensions in Ukraine and predictions of an early tightening of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in early May, demand for the dollar remains strong. In this regard, the European Central Bank (ECB) falls behind the US regulator.

Earlier, calls for a prospective interest rate hike were crushed by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s skepticism, which came after she warned of new threats to the region’s economy. However, the “hawks” do not abandon attempts to exert pressure on the European regulator despite particularly scary inflation numbers. The day before, the markets focused on the German Producer Price Index, which jumped from 1.4 percent to 4.9 percent in March, despite market expectations of only a 2.6 percent raise. Consumer inflation increased from 25.9% to 30.9 percent on an annual basis, exceeding investors’ expectations of a rise to 29.1 percent. Investors’ attention will be drawn today to reports on consumer inflation in the eurozone. According to forecasts, price dynamics are expected to accelerate to 2.5 percent monthly and 7.5 percent annually.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound trades with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, stabilizing at about 1.3050. The pound rose sharply the day before, aided by weak US macroeconomic data, but the “bullish” momentum faded noticeably on Thursday, as traders awaited the release of new data, as well as speeches by Catherine Mann, a representative of the Bank of England, and Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the British regulator. Existing Home Sales fell by 2.7 percent in the United States on Wednesday, after falling by a more substantial 8.6 percent.

Sales declined from 5.93 million to 5.77 million in absolute terms, somewhat below market expectations of 5.8 million. Until the end of the week, investors may look forward to Markit’s release of retail sales data for March and business activity data for the manufacturing and services sectors in April. All signs are expected to be negative. Therefore the pressure on the pound may intensify by the end of the week.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar trades in a range of values against the US dollar, hovering around 0.7430. The instrument has been trading primarily in a downtrend since the start of the daily session, but this nevertheless fits within the context of a mild technical correction following vigorous growth the day before. On Wednesday, the Australian and New Zealand currencies gained sharply in response to the release of rather negative macroeconomic data from the United States on the dynamics of existing home sales. Existing Home Sales decreased by 2.7 percent in March, following an 8.6 percent drop the month before, significantly worse than analysts’ expectations.

Furthermore, words by officials of the US Federal Reserve bolstered the AUD/USD quotations, dampening investors’ hopes for more active moves by the regulator aimed at tightening monetary policy in the country. President of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, stated that he intends to hike the rate twice, each time by 0.50 percent. In response, Fed spokesman Rafael Bostic, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that hiking the rate by more than 0.50 percent would be premature and might harm the US economy’s growth.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar is regaining ground against the Japanese yen, following a downtrend the day before, when the US currency fell across almost the entire market against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve’s rhetoric, which significantly reduced investors’ expectations for a possible rate hike at the May meeting by more than 0.50 percent. Traders also noticed some of the worse US reports on the dynamics of existing home sales. Data from Japan, in turn, put downward pressure on the yen.

Exports from the country fell from 19.1 percent to 14.7 percent in March, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 17.5 percent, while imports fell from 34.1 percent to 31.2 percent in the same month, falling short of investors’ expectations of 28.9 percent. This resulted in a trade imbalance of -412.4 billion yen in March, much higher than economists’ projection of -100.8 billion yen. The Tertiary Industry Index of Japan, which declined 1.3 percent in February after falling 0.7 percent the month before, added to the pressure on the instrument’s position.

XAU/USD

Gold prices stabilize near 1950.00, with yesterday’s and today’s Asian session showing multidirectional characteristics. The quotes were marginally backed by the US Federal Reserve’s statements yesterday, which lessened the chance of a more fast tightening of monetary policy during the regulator’s May meeting. Another significant reason was the USD Index’s pullback from record highs due to less-than-optimistic macroeconomic data from the United States. As there is speculation of a probable overcoming of the inflation peak shortly, the demand for gold is progressively increasing. Traders are waiting for figures on the dynamics of Jobless Claims in the United States to be released today. In addition, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in a speech during the day.

April 19, 2022April 19, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 19 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 19 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency exhibited mixed trading dynamics against the US dollar, consolidating between 1.0770 and local lows not seen since April 2020, which were updated last Thursday. Market activity is still modest, as the news backdrop at the start of the week is relatively quiet, and no notable macroeconomic releases from Europe or the United States are scheduled today. Investors will be watching the US data on home construction dynamics in March and Charles Evans’ speech at the US Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the regulator’s policy is currently quite transparent. In May, the agency is almost set to hike the rate by 50 basis points while simultaneously implementing quantitative tightening measures to decrease its balance sheet. However, it is unclear how much these steps will assist in reducing inflation, especially given the deepening of the Ukrainian crisis. On Wednesday, the eurozone will announce February statistics on industrial production dynamics, and vital consumer inflation data for March will be issued today. Prices are predicted to increase from 0.9 percent to 2.5 percent every month, with annual consumer inflation reaching 7.5 percent.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound is sliding, trying the firm support at 1.3000 for a break. GBP/USD reverts to local lows from April 13, when the currency soared. The dollar is strengthened by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further and raise the key rate by 50 basis points during its May meeting. Furthermore, investors are still hesitant to put their money into hazardous assets, fearing a worsening of the world economy. Despite the enormous sanctions imposed on Russia, the special military operation in Ukraine continues, and the peace talks have receded into the background for the time being.

Following their early success, the parties hope to gain a more advantageous position in the negotiation process. Meanwhile, Western countries continue to impose ever-stricter regulations. EU officials will consider the sixth sanctions package shortly, which might include the most painful issue: limits on importing oil and oil products. Due to the EU’s reliance on imported energy resources, there is currently no consensus on the Russian supply embargo, but a general trend for a gradual phase-out is emerging. Investors are looking forward to hearing from Catherine Mann, a representative of the Bank of England, and Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the British regulator.

NZD/USD

During the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar rose somewhat versus the US dollar, retreating from the local lows of February 28, which were updated the day before. The instrument’s current favorable dynamics are technical, while the news backdrop remains modest and does not encourage investors to buy risky assets. Traders have drawn notice to Business NZ PSI, which was released today. The indicator unexpectedly increased from 48.9 to 51.6 points in March, outperforming experts’ expectations. In addition, investors are still evaluating China’s macroeconomic numbers released yesterday.

The country’s GDP increased by 1.3 percent quarterly and 4.8 percent in Q1 2022, which was much higher than market projections of 0.6 percent QoQ and 4.4 percent YoY. As a result, China’s Industrial Production slowed in March, falling from 7.5 percent to 5%, while Retail Sales fell sharply by 3.5 percent after increasing by 6.7 percent in February. Analysts blame the drop in Retail Sales dynamics on quarantine, which China was forced to implement in some areas due to a coronavirus epidemic. On Thursday, New Zealand is slated to disclose consumer price index data for the first quarter of 2022. According to forecasts, price dynamics are expected to accelerate from 1.4 percent to 2.0 percent yearly.

USD/JPY

In Asian trading, the US dollar rises gradually versus the Japanese yen, resuming 20-year highs. The dollar’s demand is bolstered by upbeat US macroeconomic data and anticipation of the US Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy faster. The Fed might raise interest rates by 0.5 percent and begin a quantitative tightening program to decrease its balance sheet as early as May. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, is still on the fence because inflation risks are far lower and have yet to hit the regulator’s goal levels.

At the same time, the country’s officials are already wary of the national currency’s steep devaluation. Shun’ichi Suzuki, Japan’s Finance Minister, voiced concern yesterday about the present yen exchange rate, adding that sudden movements in currency markets pose harmful risks to the country’s economic and financial security. The official also proposed discussing the problem with the United States at the upcoming G7 summit.

XAU/USD

At the start of the week, gold prices stabilize, staying close to the psychological threshold of 2000.00. Following the Easter vacations, investor activity in the market has remained relatively modest. As a result of the risks of additional deterioration of the global economic situation as inflation grows swiftly, demand for the precious metal is held back. As the armed crisis between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, traders have become disillusioned with the prospect of a near-term peace solution.

Meanwhile, Western countries are putting increasingly harsh economic sanctions on Russia, driving global inflation to unprecedented highs. Expectations of tighter monetary policy from the world’s leading central banks, on the other hand, limit the gold rate’s future increase. The US Federal Reserve will likely boost interest rates by 50 basis points in May.

April 18, 2022April 18, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 18 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 18 Apr '2022

USA

The dollar is gaining ground versus its main rivals, the euro, the pound, and the yen.

Due to the US Fed’s significant tightening of monetary policy, investors anticipate additional strengthening of the US currency. Since these plans were confirmed by all of the department’s top executives, the adjustment of rates from 0.50 percent and above is essentially unquestionable. At the same time, most of them are optimistic that the national economy will be able to endure the strain and avoid a recession. The weekly numbers were previously released, revealing the rapid speed of national labor recovery.

As a result, while the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was more significant than expected (185K vs. 171K), the total number of residents receiving state payments has been continuously reducing, reaching 1.475M this time. It’s also worth noting that President Joe Biden suggested Michael Barr, a former Treasury Department official, for the position of US Fed deputy chairman for banking supervision. In his new role, he will contribute to the formulation of the Dodd-Frank Act, which limits the financial system’s actions. Barr will oversee the country’s largest financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America, and Citigroup Inc., and monitor the functioning of creditors’ security measures and their compliance with capital requirements if approved by the National Congress.

Eurozone

The euro is losing against the dollar but strengthening against the yen, with a shaky relationship with the pound.

Investors are still evaluating the outcomes of the European Central Bank’s meeting yesterday (ECB). The regulator kept the rates at their previous levels, with the critical rate hovering around 0.00 percent, deposit at -0.50 percent, and margin at 0.25 percent. Officials did not alter the current monetary policy settings, sticking to the original intention to phase out the APP program in Q3 2022. The rate rise may not commence for some time after that. President Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank told reporters that policymakers actively monitor the economy and expect inflation to accelerate shortly. The consumer price increase may reach a nadir by the middle of the year, after which it will begin to decline against the backdrop of lower consumer demand.

United Kingdom of Great Britain

The pound is increasing versus the yen but losing against the dollar, and its dynamics with the euro are uncertain.

In general, the British economy is slowing: the country’s GDP expanded by only 0.1 percent in February, compared to the predicted 0.3 percent. This is before accounting for the losses caused by the Ukrainian conflict. Despite a three-fold increase in the Bank of England interest rate, inflation grows, reaching 7.0 percent in March (to 0.75 percent ). Currently, investors are anxious about the agency’s course of action: officials may continue to hike rates or wait and watch while preserving incentives to support the economy in difficult times. Andrew Bailey, the regulator’s head, has hinted at the potential of the second alternative, but it’s unclear whether the regulator’s other officials will back him up.

Japan

The yen is losing ground against its biggest rivals, the euro, the dollar, and the pound.

The Japanese currency is traded under the impact of external forces when there are no significant economic releases. It’s worth mentioning that, according to Reuters sources, the Bank of Japan may lift its inflation prediction for the current fiscal year to nearly the target level of 2% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting later this month. The indicator will vary in response to increased commodity, fuel, and food prices. Simultaneously, officials will maintain the existing ultra-loose monetary policy to aid the national economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. It is still too early to tighten the current settings since wage growth does not keep pace with inflation.

Australia

The Australian dollar is dropping versus the US dollar and the pound, strengthening against the yen, with a shaky relationship with the euro.

The Australian labor market is under pressure due to dismal March data: the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.0 percent, despite economists expecting a value of 3.9 percent, and employment increased by only 17.9K instead of the expected 40.0K. Nonetheless, the country’s unemployment rate remains low enough, allowing the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin a substantial tightening of monetary policy after the next national elections.

April 12, 2022April 12, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 12 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 12 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During today’s Asian session, the European currency traded flat against the US dollar, stabilizing near 1.0880. New drivers are expected to emerge on the market, although current projections for the next macroeconomic publications are bleak. Today will see the release of data on consumer inflation in Germany for March. April’s usual ZEW Research Institute business sentiment report will be released later.

Analysts expect inflation in Germany to grow 2.5 percent month over month and 7.3 percent year over year, with the Harmonized Consumer Inflation Index rising to 7.6 percent. In April, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey may drop from -39.3 to -48 points. The ZEW Current Situation Survey is expected to drop from -21.4 to -35 points. The scenario with a new package of sanctions against the Russian economy exerts more pressure on the single currency’s positions, as the EU authorities have yet to agree on the oil embargo.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound trades with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, staying about 1.3020. Despite the release of a significant block of macroeconomic figures from the UK on Monday, market activity remains subdued at the start of the week. ACCORDING TO DATA RELEASED THE DAY BEFORE, UK GDP growth slowed from 0.8 percent in January to 0.1 percent in February.

Analysts predicted that the dynamics would slow to 0.3 percent. After increasing by 0.7 percent the month before, the rate of Industrial Production fell by 0.6 percent in February. The real dynamics were much worse than analysts’ predictions of 0.4 percent growth. Production rates fell from 3.0 percent to 1.6 percent on an annual basis, whereas the market projected 1.4 percent. Statistics on retail sales in the United Kingdom put additional pressure on the pound today. After increasing by 2.7 percent the month before, BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales fell by 0.4 percent in March.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is recovering from a four-day “bearish” surge by exhibiting a small corrective increase against the US dollar. The instrument is challenging the level of 0.7420 for a breakout, having recovered from its March 22 lows. The market situation is gradually improving, but traders exhibit little interest in riskier assets. The US dollar is also in demand due to rising anticipation of the US Federal Reserve’s dramatic tightening of monetary policy at its May meeting. Furthermore, the regulator is expected to announce a quantitative tightening program in May to decrease its balance sheet.

In turn, the Australian dollar was bolstered by upbeat Chinese macroeconomic data at the start of the week. In March, China’s Consumer Price Index surged from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent, higher than market predictions of 1.2 percent. On the other hand, inflation showed virtually zero dynamics every month after growing by 0.6 percent in February. With solid numbers from Australia, today’s data boost the purchasing sentiment for the instrument. The Business Conditions index of National Australia Bank increased from 9 to 18 points in March, while the Business Confidence index increased from 13 to 16 points simultaneously, with a slowdown projected to 8 points.

USD/JPY

During the Asian session, the US dollar is trading mixed against the Japanese yen, stabilizing at about 125.40. The US currency had shown active growth against the yen the day before, updating the record highs set in June 2015, backed by previous growth factors. First and foremost, investors anticipate a more vigorous tightening of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Participants in the market are also anticipating the start of a quantitative tightening campaign. General demand for safe assets maintains the US dollar in conjunction with Ukraine’s extraordinarily tense situation, where Russia continues to execute a special military campaign despite massive Western sanctions pressure.

The EU authorities had agreed on a fresh set of limitations the day before, including a ban on Russian coal imports, among other things. Although the problem of the oil and natural gas embargo remains unresolved, actual actions are being taken to phase out the acquisition of these energy carriers from the Russian Federation. Japanese macroeconomic data are now supporting the yen. As a result, the volume of bank lending in the country climbed by 0.5 percent in March, following a 0.4 percent gain the month before. Analysts predicted that the dynamics would slow to 0.3 percent.

XAU/USD

During Asian trading, the XAU/USD pair displays minor gains, testing the 1960.00 mark once more. The instrument had already attempted to consolidate above the day before, having updated local highs from March 14. Gold prices momentarily jumped to a monthly high on fears of rising inflationary threats in Europe and the United States, which prompted purchases of the metal, but the “bulls” regained most of their gains by the end of the Monday afternoon session. Investors will be watching for inflation statistics from the United States to be released tomorrow. Despite the US Federal Reserve’s strenuous steps to keep it under control, economists estimate the annual rate to rise to 8.4% in March.

Higher energy prices are anticipated to be the biggest contribution since commodities markets have skyrocketed to new record highs due to the Russian economy’s sanctions strategy. At the same time, gold’s future growth is hampered by the US Federal Reserve estimates of a 0.50 percent interest rate hike at its May meeting. Furthermore, regulator members spoke out in favor of commencing a quantitative tightening program.

April 11, 2022April 11, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 11 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 11 Apr '2022

United States of America

The US dollar increased versus its biggest rivals, the British pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen.

US Federal Reserve officials’ “hawkish” statements and the minutes of the regulator’s most recent meeting strengthen the dollar. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Governor Mary Daly, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Patrick Harker urged more rate hikes and a significant reduction in the regulator’s balance sheet this week. According to the regulations, it might begin in May and cost $95 billion every month. The pace of rate hikes will pick up to 0.50 percent. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, backed the debate yesterday, confirming his reputation as a “hawk.”

He believes the regulator should pursue a significant rate hike. Otherwise, it will fall behind inflation. Short-term loan rates, according to the official, should be 3.5 percent. He is a current member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and at the upcoming meeting, he is expected to vote for a 0.50 percent rate hike.

Eurozone

The EUR is somewhat weaker against the US dollar but rises against the Japanese yen and the British pound.

EUR is traded under the impact of external forces due to a lack of significant economic releases. According to investors, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to make new efforts to reduce inflation. According to the regulator’s most recent meeting minutes, officials agreed to stop buying bonds in the third quarter of this year. However, they did not make concrete decisions on boosting interest rates.

Investors hope that the ECB will take this action due to the sustained rise in prices. Meanwhile, additional anti-Russian economic measures are being imposed by Eurozone authorities. A restriction on the purchase of coal stands out among the most recent restrictive measures. However, its implementation has been postponed until mid-August, allowing Eurozone members to reorient themselves to other sources. Imports of timber, rubber, cement, fertilizers, high-quality fish and wine were also prohibited.

United Kingdom of Great Britain

The pound is losing ground against its biggest rivals, the dollar, the yen, and the euro.

GBP is traded under the impact of external forces due to a lack of critical economic announcements. The British Center for Economic and Business Research and the worldwide Internet market research and data analysis company YouGov produced a report revealing that confidence in the financial status of UK households has dropped to its lowest level in ten years. Citizens anticipate that their financial situation will worsen in the coming year. It has already been put under much strain in the past as food and energy prices have risen dramatically. According to YouGov representatives, the war in Ukraine puts pressure on the indicator. The situation may deteriorate in the future, negatively impacting demand.

Japan

The yen falls versus the euro and the dollar but rises against the pound.

The consumer confidence index for March increased from 35.2 to 32.8 points, owing to fears about rising prices due to the developing Ukrainian situation. The Japanese government expects consumer mood to worsen further, but officials will closely watch the problem. Meanwhile, the March economic observers’ sentiment index increased from 37.7 to 47.8 points. This statistic is generated using data from a poll of employees whose jobs are most affected by the economy. The slow retreat of the coronavirus epidemic was linked with optimism, as was the hope of the restart of government programs to support tourism. However, if the conflict in Ukraine drags on and energy prices continue to climb, the situation could deteriorate.

Australia

The Australian dollar is losing ground against the Japanese yen, the US dollar, and the euro, but its performance against the British pound is more unclear.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its semi-annual financial stability report today. The regulator said it kept a careful eye on the rise in home mortgage debt and lending and advised borrowers to expect higher interest rates. Officials say the country’s financial system is solid, with well-capitalized banking institutions and few nonperforming loans, but increased rates could cause problems for borrowers.

Oil

The uncertain dynamics of oil quotes continue. They attempted countless times to grow but were unsuccessful.

The announcement that the International Energy Agency has decided to release 60 million barrels of oil from its members’ state reserves to the market, except the United States’ share, which should withdraw another 180 million barrels of oil, is still limiting price increases. On the other hand, experts suspect that these steps will limit price increases in the long run, even though the entry of large volumes of oil into the market will most likely have a short-term effect.

April 4, 2022April 4, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 04 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 04 Apr '2022

The Cryptocurrency market began the previous week with an attempt to increase but subsequently fell into a bear market, losing all of its gains. BTC is currently trading at $4450.00 (–3.4%), ETH is around 3200.00 (+0.9%), USDT is around 1.0003 (–0.01%), BNB is around 420.00 (–2.5%), and USDC is around 0.9998 (+0.02%). The total market capitalization has fallen to 2.066 trillion dollars, with Bitcoin accounting for 41.3 percent of that total.

The market is still torn between two trends: aspirations for further investment in the industry as a result of global financial instability and fears of greater regulation of the Cryptocurrency market by the US and EU. The rise in the sector at the start of the week is linked to investors’ retreat from digital assets in the face of rising inflation and the depreciation of fiat currency. After Russian officials hinted that items produced in Russia, including energy, may be sold for Cryptocurrency, the market was looking for big investments. At the moment, such a mechanism is being developed at the highest levels. Turkey could be the first country in which cryptocurrencies are used to conduct business. Several experts feel that the Luna Foundation Guard’s (LFG) 1.1 billion dollar purchase of BTC to maintain the UST stablecoin’s stability also provides short-term assistance to the market.

Despite investor exuberance, the market began to decline by the middle of the week, and it continues to this day. The EU and US governments are still concerned about the further adoption of cryptocurrencies in society, and they are continually reminded of this, urging the implementation of clear regulations for the digital asset market. The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) issued a statement this week warning that cryptocurrencies in general and stablecoins in particular, pose a threat to European financial stability that must be addressed through regulatory action. Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that cryptocurrencies can be used for unlawful operations, even though they are becoming more prevalent in US investing activity.

The European Parliament is currently working on modifications to the anti-money laundering (AML) laws that would eliminate anonymity for any bitcoin transaction. The methods to enforce this rule have yet to be established, and the European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed its opposition to such a move. Previously, crypto-currency firms were merely required to identify the beneficiary of transactions totaling more than 1,000 Euros.

Among other market headlines, it’s worth mentioning the Cryptocurrency community’s scandal, which was sparked by various environmental organizations’ initiatives. As a result, Greenpeace and other environmentalists began a public awareness campaign dubbed “Change the code, not the climate” to persuade the Bitcoin community to abandon the Proof-of-Work algorithm in favor of a more environmentally friendly one. Chris Larsen, one of Ripple’s leaders, backed the campaign and contributed $5 million to its implementation.

The crypto community was accused of hypocrisy and advancing the interests of its currency by the crypto community in response to this initiative (XRP). Experts claim he was unconcerned about the environment while making millions with environmentally hazardous technologies. Furthermore, the Cryptocurrency community views the attempt to exert pressure on the fifty largest digital enterprises (mining, crypto-exchanges, and so on) as a dangerous move by third parties to impose their will on autonomous digital asset aficionados.

Most cryptocurrencies’ prices may continue to fall or consolidate this week.

April 2, 2022April 2, 2022

Tips to Invest in Precious Metals

Tips to Invest in Precious Metals.

Gold and silver are considered valuable metals for Metal trading online and have been coveted for a long. Even today, precious metal trading online has a place in the portfolio of a wise investor. But which precious metal trading online is the greatest to invest in? What makes them so volatile?

There are many different ways to purchase precious metals for Metal trading online, such as gold, silver, and platinum, and several compelling reasons to join the treasure hunt. So, if you’re a beginner at precious metals for online metal trading, keep reading to find out more about how they function and how you might invest in them.

Crucial Takeaways of this artical:

Precious metal trading online is an excellent portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge; however, gold, the most well-known of these Online metal trading, is not the one and only available to investors.

Silver, platinum, and palladium are all three precious metals trading online that can be added to your portfolio, and each has its own set of risks and rewards.

Investors can acquire access to physical metal trading online through the futures market, online metal trading ETFs and mutual funds, mining company equities, and own physical metal trading online.

Gold:

Let’s begin with the granddaddy of all metals: gold. Gold is differentiated by its resistance to rust and corrosion, malleability, and ability to conduct heat and electricity. It has many industrial uses in dentistry and electronics, but it is best known as a jewelry base and an option for currency coins.

The market determines and analyzes the base price of gold 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Gold is primarily a function of sentiment, with supply and demand having less impact on its price. This is because the bulk of above-ground hoarded gold greatly outweighs the fresh mine supply. Said, when hoarders decide to sell, the price reduces. A new collection is swiftly consumed when people desire to buy, driving gold prices upward.

A rise in the desire to hoard the gleaming yellow metal trading online can be attributed to several factors:

Systemic financial concerns: When banks and money lenders are thought to be unstable and have political stability, gold is frequently sought as a safe store of value.

Inflation: When actual rates of return in the stock, bond, and real estate markets are negative, consumers frequently flock to gold as a haven asset.

War and political turmoil have always prompted people to stockpile gold. A lifetime’s worth of money can be made portable and stored until needed for food, shelter, or other necessities as the sound pathway to the riskiest situation.

Silver:

Silver’s price fluctuates between its perceived position as a store of value and its role as an industrial online metal trading, unlike gold. As a result, price swings in the silver market are more volatile than those in the gold market.

As a result, while silver will trade in a similar range to gold as a hoarding item, the metal’s industrial supply/demand equation has an equivalent impact on the price. This equation always has in response to innovations, such as:

The emergence of the digital camera has overtaken silver’s previously dominant role in the photography industry—silver-based photographic film.

The growth of the upper-middle class in the East’s developing market nations fueled a surge in demand for silver-based electrical appliances, medical devices, and other industrial equipment. Silver’s qualities make it a desirable commodity for everything from bearings to electrical connections.

Silver’s applications in batteries, superconductors, and microcircuits.

It’s not sure whether or not these changes will impact overall non-investment silver demand. Various applications influence silver’s price, and it isn’t merely utilized for fashion or as a store of value.

Platinum:

Like gold and Silver, Platinum is traded on global commodities exchanges. Because it is significantly rarer, it frequently fetches a more significant price (per troy ounce) than gold during the stock market and political stability periods. Annually, far less online metal trading is extracted from the ground.

Other varied factors which are influencing the price of platinum are inclusive:

Platinum, similar to silver, is regarded as an industrial metal trading online. Automotive catalysts to reduce the harmfulness of pollutants have the highest demand for platinum. Following that, the majority of the market is for jewelry. Catalysts for petroleum and chemical refining, as well as the computer sector, consume the remainder.

Platinum prices are affected mainly by auto sales and production numbers due to the auto industry’s considerable reliance on online metal trading. Legislation requiring automobiles to install more catalytic converters could increase demand. In 2009, however, American and Japanese automakers began to use recycled auto catalysts or more of palladium, platinum’s reliable—and typically less expensive—sister group metal.

Only two countries have many platinum mines: South Africa and Russia. This opens the door to cartel-like behavior that artificially supports or raises platinum prices.

According to investors, all of these factors combine to make platinum the most volatile of the precious online metal trading.

Palladium:

Palladium, which has more industrial uses than the other three metals trading online, is less well-known. Palladium is a gleaming, silvery metal employed in various production processes, including electronics and industrial products. It’s also utilized in dentistry, medical, chemical applications, jewelry, and groundwater treatment, among other things.

The United States, Russia, South Africa, and Canada are major countries that produce most of the world’s supply of this uncommon online metal trading, which has the atomic number 46 on the periodic table of elements.

Palladium was initially used in jewelry in 1939 by jewelers. When white gold is combined with yellow gold, the alloy produces a more substantial metal trading online than white gold. Tonga’s government minted circulating palladium coins commemorating King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV’s coronation in 1967. This is the first and foremost palladium usage in coinage.

Palladium can be thinned to one-two hundred fifty thousandths of an inch by online metal trading workers. Pure palladium is pliable, but it becomes more robust and complex when worked with at room temperature. The sheets are then employed in solar energy and fuel cell applications.

Palladium is commonly used in catalytic converters because it is an excellent catalyst for speeding up chemical reactions. This gleaming metal trading online is 12.6 percent tougher than platinum, making it more durable and long-lasting.

Putting Treasure in Your Treasure Chest:

Let’s look at the precious online metal trading investment possibilities available.

Commodity Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are mutual funds that invest in commodities (ETFs)

Gold, silver, palladium, and platinum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a quick and liquid way to buy and sell gold, silver, palladium, and platinum. On the other hand, ETFs do not provide you with physical access to the commodity. Thus you do not have a claim on the metal trading online in the fund. A gold bar or a silver coin will not be sent to you.

Mutual Funds and Common Stocks:

Precious online metal trading miners’ stocks are highly correlated to precious metals prices. Unless you’re familiar with how mining stocks are valued, it’s probably best to stick to funds managed by people who have a track record of success.

Futures and Options are two types of financial instruments:

Investors who wish to make large wagers on metal trading online can take advantage of the futures and options markets, which provide liquidity and leverage. You might make the most money with derivative products or lose the most money.

Bullion:

Coins and bars are only feasible for those with a secure location to store them, like a complete box for the safe deposit or a safe. Bullion is unquestionably the only alternative for those who expect the worst, but bullion is illiquid and plain inconvenient to hold for those with a longer time horizon.

Certificates provide investors with all the different and varied advantages of owning actual gold without the hassles of transit and storage. On the other hand, certificates are only paper if you’re looking for insurance in the event of a real tragedy. Expect no investor to accept them in exchange for anything useful.

Is Investing in Precious Metal trading online a Good Idea for You?

Precious online metal trading provides unique inflationary protection due to their intrinsic value, lack of credit risk, and inability to be inflated. That implies you won’t be able to print any longer. They also provide proper “upheaval insurance” for financial and political/military disruptions.

According to investment theory, precious metal trading online has a low or negative correlation to other asset classes such as stocks and bonds. Even a small percentage of precious online metal trading in a portfolio can minimize risk and volatility.

Risks of Precious Metal trading online:

Every investment has its pair set of dangers. Investing in precious online metal trading carries considerable risk, even though they provide a certain level of security. Due to technical inconsistencies, metal trading online prices may fall (more sellers than buyers). On the other hand, Sellers gain from economic uncertainty because prices tend to rise.

What Are the Advantages of Precious Metals trading online Investing over Stocks?

Investing in precious online metal trading has several advantages over equities, including inflation protection, intrinsic value, no credit risk, high liquidity, portfolio diversification, and purchase convenience.

What Are the Best Precious Metal trading online Investment Options?

The best ways to invest in precious online metal trading are to acquire the metal trading online are outright and hold it in physical form or by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have substantial exposure to precious trading metal online or firms in the precious metal trading online market.

What Are the Drawbacks of Precious Online Metal trading Investing?

Individuals will not receive any revenue from precious metal trading online because they have no financial flow. If a person owns the metal trading online outright, there is also a storage cost connected with the investment.

Final Thoughts:

Precious online metal trading is a valuable and effective way to diversify a portfolio. Knowing your goals and risk profile before stepping in is the key to success with them. The erratic nature of precious metal online trading can be used to build wealth. It can also lead to ruin if left unchecked.

April 1, 2022April 2, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 01 Apr ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 01 Apr '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency trades flat versus the US dollar, consolidating near 1.1060 and looking for new drivers. The euro had weakened sharply against the US dollar the day before, preventing the instrument from consolidating on new local highs set on March 1. The return of the “bearish” trend was owing to a rise in unfavorable emotions about the impact of Russian sanctions on the world economy and, in particular, the European economy. Analysts are attempting to analyze the likelihood of gas supply interruptions to the EU due to adopting a new method for paying current and subsequent contracts in rubles, among other things.

Many European countries have stated that they will not make concessions to Russia, perhaps leading to the Russian Federation’s exports being halted. The EU’s macroeconomic statistics, released yesterday, had just a tiny impact on the instrument’s behavior. In February, retail sales in Germany increased by 0.3 percent, slightly less than market predictions of 0.5 percent. Sales volumes fell from 10.4 percent to 7.0 percent annually, while experts predicted a drop to 6.1 percent. At the same time, on the eve of a possible fresh catastrophe, the German labor market exhibited highly reassuring resilience in March. The country’s Unemployment Change decreased by 18K, easing down following a 33K decrease. In March, Germany’s unemployment rate stayed at 5%, while the euro zones were 6.8%.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound trades with mixed dynamics against the US dollar, stabilizing at about 1.3130. Despite releasing important macroeconomic data from the United States and the United Kingdom, trading activity remains muted. Traders are probably wary of taking risks ahead of today’s release of the final report on the US labor market for March, which will help assess the chances of the US Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later. Strong figures on UK GDP dynamics boosted the pound yesterday.

.The British economy grew by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, higher than the previous quarter’s value of 1.0 percent. Economic growth was also moved upward from 6.5 percent to 6.6 percent annually. Meanwhile, in March, the National Housing Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) increased from 12.6 percent to 14.3 percent, exceeding market estimates of 13.5 percent. House prices in the United Kingdom continue to rise, indicating rising inflationary risks and possibly influencing the Bank of England’s stance on monetary policy tightening.

NZD/USD

During the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar fell somewhat versus the US dollar, forming a rather strong “bearish” momentum established on the market the day before. The instrument is poised to test 0.6900, waiting for new drivers, which might include the findings of the March labor market report in the United States. The general news backdrop remains gloomy, contributing to increased demand for safe assets. The release of US macroeconomic data on Thursday had little impact on the instrument’s movements, although it did increase interest in Friday’s labor market report.

For instance, the number of first jobless claims jumped from 188K to 202K for the week ending March 25, higher than market forecasts of 197K. Extremely dismal macroeconomic numbers from New Zealand are putting additional pressure on the New Zealand currency today. In March, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand declined from 81.7 to 77.9 points, much below the average analyst projections. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell sharply from 50.4 to 48.1 points, while the prediction was 49.7 points.

USD/JPY

In Asian trade, the US dollar is active versus the Japanese yen, recovering after a three-day loss culminating in re-establishing local lows from March 25. The US dollar is strengthened by expectations for today’s US labor market report release for March. Traders expect the reported statistics to be upbeat, allowing the US Federal Reserve to fully pursue its intentions to tighten monetary policy. Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of the regulator raising the rate by 50 basis points during the May meeting.

On the other hand, the yen is under pressure today following the release of dismal macroeconomic data from Japan. In Q1 2022, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index declined from 18 to 14 points, marginally better than market predictions of a drop to 12 points. Over the same period, Tankan Large All Industry Capex declined from 9.3 percent to 2.2 percent, while analysts expected 4 percent. Simultaneously, with neutral projections, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.2 to 54.1 points in March.

XAU/USD

During the Asian trading day, gold prices are consolidating around 1940.00. The day before, XAU/USD made new attempts to rise and decline, but the asset only managed to gain a small edge by the end of the session. The scenario in Eastern Europe continues to favor the instrument. Following Russian troops’ commencement of major offensive operations in Ukraine’s southern directions, hopes for a peace accord have all but vanished. The Kremlin also stated that the parties to the conflict met in Istanbul earlier this week but that no significant progress in the negotiations was made.

On the other hand, traders are not in a rush to build new long positions on the instrument at the close of the week as they await the release of the US labor market report for March later today. Traders hope that the data will be positive enough to bolster the market’s belief that the US Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively.

March 31, 2022April 2, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 31 Mar ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 31 Mar '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the European currency traded flat against the US dollar, maintaining near local highs from March 1 and the level of 1.1170. Investors are expecting new drivers to arrive on the market. Thus activity on the instrument is still low at the start of the week. The single currency had seen a rather active increase the day before, aided by dismal US data, while European figures had little impact. GDP growth in Q4 2021 in the United States was revised to 6.9%, which is 0.1 percent lower than prior projections.

The Gross Domestic Product Price Index fell from 7.2 percent to 7.1 percent for the same period. Data from Europe showed a significant drop in business confidence in the eurozone and a record rise in inflation in Germany. In March, the eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator declined from 113.9 to 108.5 points, whereas the market consensus was 109 points. In March, the Business Climate Indicator decreased from 1.79 to 1.67 points. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stayed unchanged at -18.7 points. In March, consumer inflation in Germany increased from 5.1 percent to 7.3 percent, a new high and well beyond market expectations of 6.3 percent.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound is losing momentum against the US dollar, prepared to test 1.3100 for a break. Expectations of a quick conclusion of a peace accord between Russia and Ukraine are dwindling, as market participants claim that no significant changes have occurred due to the negotiations, and basic tensions remain. The Russian Federation is lowering its force strength in one direction while strengthening it in another, which does not result in a truce as April approaches; when new rules for paying for Russian gas go into effect, demand for riskier assets declines.

If the systems for paying for “blue fuel” in rubles fail or the EU countries take a principled stance, supplies may be harmed. It’s worth noting that the UK’s reliance on Russian resources is substantially lower than, say, Germany’s. Today, investors are concentrating their attention on the most recent data on the UK’s GDP dynamics for Q4 2021. According to current predictions, the British economy is expected to increase by 1% QoQ and 6.5 percent YoY.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is sliding versus the US dollar, correcting following an erratic increase on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result of the general downturn in market mood, the instrument is probing the level of 0.7500 for a breakdown. Hopes for a de-escalation of the crisis in Eastern Europe are waning, as Russian and Ukrainian officials’ rhetoric does not reflect the initial confidence voiced by participants in the Istanbul negotiations. Meanwhile, since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the transfer to ruble-based gas payments, probable delays in Russian energy supplies to Europe and some other nations have grown.

The AUD is now under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data from China. In March, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 51.6 to 48.4 points, while analysts predicted the index to rise to 53.2 points. Simultaneously, the NBS Manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.2 to 49.5 points, falling short of market expectations of 49.9 points.

USD/JPY

During Asian trade, the US dollar has been rather active versus the Japanese yen, recovering from a two-day “bearish” rise that renewed local lows on March 25. As prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a final ceasefire fall, demand for the US currency is gradually rebounding. On the other hand, buyers are wary ahead of the release of a significant batch of US macroeconomic data at the end of the week. The attention is on Friday’s labor market report, which will be used to re-evaluate the prospects for an earlier tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve at its May meeting.

Previously, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out raising the rate by 50 basis points all at once in response to rising inflationary pressures. The instrument’s dynamics are unaffected by today’s macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial production in the country increased by 0.1 percent in February, a significant improvement from the 0.8 percent drop the month before but far behind market estimates of 0.5 percent. Production increased by 0.2 percent on an annual basis after decreasing by 0.5 percent in January.

XAU/USD

During the morning session, gold prices are marginally lower, correcting after increasing the day before, driven by the return of the negative market mood. On Tuesday, gold retraced its February 25 lows, owing to the upbeat statements made by participants in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations following their meeting in Istanbul. There was anticipation that military action would drop substantially and that a truce could be declared soon. However, it was later revealed that such judgments were reached early.

The Russian Federation stated the continuation of key conflicts in the parties’ views (first and foremost on the territorial issue). It explained the drop in personnel numbers in two directions due to the military contingent’s planned regrouping. Today’s trading volume on the instrument is still quite low. Investors are waiting for new market drivers to emerge and the release of the March report on the US labor market, which is scheduled for Friday.

March 30, 2022April 2, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 30 Mar ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 30 Mar '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro grows moderately against the US dollar, building on a strong “bullish” trend from the previous day. EUR/USD is attempting a breach at 1.1110, around the local highs of March 17. The preliminary results of the Russian and Ukrainian teams’ meeting, which ended the day before in Turkey, were the basis for the appearance of bullish investor sentiments. The parties hailed big progress in the talks, which might, in theory, lead to a de-escalation of the military combat on Ukrainian soil. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also stated that due to the implementation of current agreements, the leadership has decided to temporarily halt force advances in multiple areas.

At the same time, it should be recognized that there are still significant differences between the parties, particularly on the territorial issue. Today, the Russian government is anticipated to offer its counter-proposals. Meanwhile, market investors await the release of a set of figures on business morale in the euro area for March and consumer inflation data from Germany. According to forecasts, price pressure is expected to rise further, despite a general reduction in company confidence and activity. For example, Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, which was issued the day before, plummeted from -8.5 to -15.5 points in April, far worse than market expectations of -12 points.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound rose versus the US dollar, attempting to rebound from a large drop earlier. The GBP/USD is pushing 1.3100 for a break, with support coming from another round of Russian-Ukraine talks. Traders anticipate that the authorities’ choices would aid in completing the special military operation on Ukrainian soil as soon as possible, easing sanctions pressure. However, there are few specifics on the market: limitations remain in place, and Russia is ready to shut off the gas supply to European corporations in April if they do not move to ruble-based contracts.

According to macroeconomic data released the day before, the number of mortgage approvals in February fell sharply from 73.841K to 70.993K, despite economists expecting an increase to 74.850K. At the same time, overall Consumer Credit grew from 0.143 billion pounds to 1.876 billion pounds in February, much-exceeding experts’ earlier projections of 0.843 billion pounds.

AUD/USD

During Asian trading, the Australian dollar is rising and probing the level of 0.7520 for a breakout. Since November 2021, the AUD/USD has been trading near local highs, according to data updated at the start of the week. The reaction of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations after the negotiations in Turkey the day before was the primary driver. Official representatives from the two countries met in Istanbul for a face-to-face discussion, which was deemed “productive,” and the agreements established are currently being implemented. The expectation that the shift in language would lead to a long-term political settlement was reflected in the dynamics of risky assets, notably the Australian dollar.

The asset was also bolstered by upbeat macroeconomic data from Australia yesterday: retail sales grew by 1.8 percent last month, repeating the dynamics of January, despite analysts’ expectations for a severe decrease in sales to 1.0 percent. The data from the United States mirrored the country’s predicted rise in inflationary pressures. As a result, the Housing Price Index increased from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent in January, exceeding 1.4 percent. For the same period, the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index increased from 18.6 percent to 19.1 percent, bucking projections for a slowing to 18.4 percent.

USD/JPY

During the Asian session, the US dollar fell steadily against the Japanese yen, rapidly retreating from the record highs set at the start of the week. USD/JPY is currently generating a “bearish” momentum, which began the day before when the market eagerly greeted the preliminary findings of a new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The sides claimed to have made progress, backed up by a decrease in military activity in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions. However, there has been no complete truce, and the parties are still in disagreement over territorial disputes. Japan’s admittedly dismal macroeconomic indicators did not hamper the Japanese currency’s rise on Wednesday.

As a result, the volume of Retail Sales fell by 0.8 percent in February, while analysts projected zero dynamics after a 0.9 percent drop. Annually, the indicator declined 0.8 percent after growing 1.1 percent in January, while sales in large stores slowed from 2.6 percent to 0.1 percent, lower than projected at 0.3 percent.

XAU/USD

During the morning session, gold prices rose slightly, recovering from “bearish” dynamics at the start of the week, which led to the re-emergence of local lows from February 25. Positive trends in the US government bond market and optimistic statements from participants in the Russia-Ukraine negotiating process impose pressure on the instrument’s position. As a result, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries approached 2.5 percent again the day before, indicating that the tendency for additional strengthening has remained reasonably consistent. According to early statistics, the parties could agree on several problems regarding Ukraine’s neutral position, but territorial issues remain a concern.

March 29, 2022March 30, 2022

Daily Analysis Report 29 Mar ‘2022

Daily Analysis Report 29 Mar '2022

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the euro displays a moderate rise against the US dollar, stabilizing at about 1.1000. The euro had gone lower the day before, approaching the local lows of March 15, but the “bulls” were able to recuperate by the end of the afternoon session. Because Monday’s macroeconomic calendar was empty and the situation in Eastern Europe remained unchanged, market activity remained muted. Russia is still conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, and peace talks have yet to get the sides closer to some sort of agreement.

Western countries, for their part, are preparing fresh measures against Russia’s economy, the most notable of which is a likely ban or large decrease in Russian energy resource imports. Some European countries reject a Russian Federation oil and gas embargo, claiming that it would jeopardize their energy security. Investors anticipate the release of March consumer inflation numbers in Germany this week. According to current projections, the report may show an acceleration of inflation in the EU’s largest economy from 5.1 percent to 6.1 percent.

GBP/USD

During the morning session, the British pound is trading in an uptrend versus the US dollar, correcting after a significant loss the day before, which resulted in the re-establishment of local lows from March 16. The findings of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey’s speech, which presented a gloomy evaluation of the situation in the British economy due to anti-Russian sanctions, imposed pressure on GBP/USD positions. The official specifically warned of a potential gasoline shortage, which would result in a significant increase in the cost of living. The United Kingdom had previously placed a comprehensive ban on Russian energy imports, following the lead of the United States.

Although the UK is not overly reliant on direct Russian imports, rising global commodity prices are bound to impact its economy. Investors are currently anticipating the release of February data on Consumer Credit Dynamics. Forecasts on indicators are generally optimistic, but they do not represent the existing status of the credit market and will thus be mostly useless. The Bank of England will also release its Quarterly Bulletin for Q1 2022.

NZD/USD

In the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar exhibited mixed trading characteristics against the US dollar, consolidating at the support level of 0.6900. The instrument dropped sharply yesterday, but this was due only to technical factors and market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will intensify monetary policy tightening shortly. The regulator is expected to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points all at once in May and implement quantitative tightening procedures. The escalation of the military situation in Ukraine has also boosted demand for the US currency. Traders are dissatisfied with the negotiation process, which has yielded no results.

As a result, the pressure from sanctions is only mounting, and Russia is already considering punitive measures. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular, ordered that all gas payments be converted to rubles, which many European countries saw as a breach of existing treaties. Investors are waiting for a slew of macroeconomic data from the United States today. The S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index for January and the March indicator of consumer confidence are also worth watching. John Williams, the President of the New York Fed and a member of the FOMC, is scheduled to speak later in the day.

USD/JPY

During Asian trading, the US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen, reversing a significant surge the day before that led to new highs not seen since August 2015. Analysts blame the Bank of Japan’s attempts to lower bond yields for the Japanese currency’s sharp depreciation. The Bank of Japan already has an exceptionally liberal monetary policy. However, to keep the yield on treasury securities from rising, it announced the redemption of an unlimited amount of debt obligations with a 5- to 10-year maturity period.

The Bank of Japan is likely to make purchases for three days in a row, which could alter the rate of the Japanese yen. Optimistic macroeconomic indicators from Japan provide some support for the yen today. In February, the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined from 2.8 percent to 2.7 percent, against benign projections. In February, the Jobs/Applicants Ratio climbed from 1.2 to 1.21.

XAU/USD

During the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating near 1920.00. The instrument had experienced a pretty active decrease the day before, owing to an increase in the attractiveness of the US currency to investors. The US dollar is rising on predictions that the US Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy further at its meeting in May, raising the rate by 50 basis points. Furthermore, a surge in the yield on treasury bonds is increasing demand for the US currency: the yield on 10-year securities has risen above 2.55 percent for the first time since May 2019.

As a result of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains high. Traders are dissatisfied with the discussion process and believe the parties will not be able to strike a peace accord shortly.