AUD/USD: Technical Analysis Report 12 Jan 2021
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following a pivotal rebound from demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), buyers, according to the monthly chart, appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trend line resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high ).
Thanks to further weakness materializing on Monday, extending south of recent 2021 peaks, AUD/USD is poised to test the resolve of 0.7647 support.
In conjunction with the prevailing uptrend (since March 2020), and monthly price taking aim at higher pinnacles, a successful 0.7647 retest throws a light on supply at 0.7937/0.7890.
Momentum, as measured by the RSI oscillator, shows the indicator exited overbought terrain in recent trading.
Trendline support (0.7461) gave way in early movement, allowing for a near-test of demand at 0.7665/0.7644 (prior supply). Price action traders may have also noticed this demand intersects with trendline support (0.6991).
Below the aforesaid supports, another demand is centered around 0.7600/0.7625. This is considered an important zone, with it being here a decision was made to breakout higher and take on offers around the 0.7639 December 17 high.
Demand at 0.7654/0.7672 made an entrance heading into the US session Monday, fuelling a move above 0.77 to peaks just south of resistance from 0.7721/0.7731.
Although the rebound from the aforesaid demand was relatively spirited, price is seen crossing back beneath 0.77, threatening to retest demand and possibly make a run for support at 0.7623.
The RSI indicator tested oversold space on Monday, and recently generated a modest correction ahead of 50.00 and trend line resistance.
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Monthly price appears itching to reach supply at 0.8303/0.8082, with daily price also exhibiting scope to rally to at least supply at 0.7937/0.7890. However, a 0.7647 support retest could arise on the daily chart before buyers come forward.
Interestingly, the H4 demand at 0.7665/0.7644 connects not only with H4 trend line support but also daily support from 0.7647. This confluence, therefore, may draw in dip-buyers.