Technical Analytics Report

AUD/USD: Technical Analysis Report 30 March 2021

AUD/USD: Technical Analysis Report 30 March 2021

 

Current trend: further decline – in the future

 The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7590, showing readiness to continue the decline to the area of 0.7375, which is facilitated by the rhetoric of Australian officials.

 Growth will slow as the country emerges from the first phase of recovery from COVID-19, starting a second, slower period, said Stephen Kennedy, Australian finance minister. The Senate estimates that the economy has so far recovered by 85% from pre-pandemic levels.

 In particular, a gradual curtailment of the JobKeeper assistance program is planned, which means that 100–150K people will stop receiving benefits shortly. The end of the project will be manageable and employment will continue to rise this year but analysts expect an increase in the number of unemployed in the short term. The unemployment rate has shown positive dynamics in recent months. The index fell to 5.8% in February, while the level of economic activity remained at a record high of 66.1%. In the short term, this supported the Australian dollar but due to concerns about new infections in Europe and the United States, as well as amid falling oil prices, the instrument is falling.

 This week, investors are focused on macroeconomic data from the US. Nonfarm payrolls data will be released on Friday. The indicator is expected to grow to 639K in March. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 6.0%. If the American labor market shows a confident recovery, then the long-term trend may become “bearish”.

 Support and Resistance

At the end of March, the price is near the key support of the long-term uptrend of 0.7590. If the level is kept, the growth to the first target at 0.7795 is expected. After the breakdown of the support level of 0.7590 is broken, the trend will reverse downwards. The medium-term trend remains downwards. Target zone 2 (0.7687–0.7671) was broken last week. The next target for sales is target zone 3 (0.7527–0.7511).

 Resistance levels: 0.7795, 0.7965.

Support levels: 0.7590, 0.7375.

 

Trading Tips

·         Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.7590 with the target at 0.7375 and stop loss 0.7687. Implementation period: 7–9 days.

·         Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7795 with the target at 0.8100 and stop loss 0.7693.

 

Scenario

Timeframe: Weekly

Recommendation: Sell Stop

Entry Point: 0.7585

Take Profit: 0.7375

Stop Loss: 0.7687

Key Levels: 0.7375, 0.7590, 0.7795, 0.7965 

Alternative Scenario

Timeframe: Weekly

Recommendation: Buy Stop

Entry Point: 0.7800

Take Profit: 0.8100

Stop Loss: 0.7693

Key Levels: 0.7375, 0.7590, 0.7795, 0.7965


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