AUD/USD Technical Analysis Report 20 Jan 2021
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following two spirited months of gains off demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), buyers, despite January trading off best levels (forming a shooting star), appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082—a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high ).
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Since January 6 refreshed 2021 tops at 0.7820, AUD/USD has consolidated gains.
In terms of technical levels to be mindful of, support at 0.7647 could wave in price action today. Buyers embracing this level throws light on supply at 0.7937/0.7890.
In terms of the RSI indicator, support at 60.00 collapsing on Friday draws support at 52.00 into range.
As buyers embraced demand at 0.7665/0.7644 (prior supply) in early trading this week, this resulted in the pair retesting trendline resistance (prior support – 0.6991) Tuesday. For now, as you can see, the retest is holding. Whether this will wave in additional selling to target demand at 0.7600/0.7625 is difficult to estimate at this point. 0.7600/0.7625, however, was a key decision point.
The lifeless effort to hold 0.77 led H1 to form a double-top pattern around 0.7724 on Tuesday, with the pattern neckline (0.7697) also ceding ground.
According to the pattern’s take-profit objective (measured by taking the distance between the highest peak and the neckline and extending this south from the neckline), short-term flow may cross paths with demand at 0.7654/0.7672 today.
From the RSI indicator, we can see the value retested trendline resistance (prior support) and nudged below the 50.00 centreline.
Short-term sellers may welcome the break of the H1 double-top pattern neckline at 0.7697, with H1 demand targeted at 0.7654/0.7672, an area fastened to the upper side of H4 demand at 0.7665/0.7644. It should be noted daily support at 0.7647 is seen within the lower boundary of H4 demand.