Technical Analytics Report

AUD/USD: Technical Analysis Report 05 April 2021

AUD/USD: Technical Analysis Report 05 April 2021


Current trend: consolidation pending new drivers 

AUD is marginally higher against USD, trading just above 0.7600. Market activity is gradually recovering as investors return from the Easter holidays, but there are still few new growth drivers.

 Inflation data from TD Securities provided some support to AUD on Monday. In March, the inflation rate accelerated from the previous +0.1% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which turned out to be better than analysts’ average expectations.

 “Bullish” activity on the instrument is constrained by a strong report on the US labor market, published last Friday. The report showed a record growth in the number of new jobs by more than 900K, which reflects the strong recovery of the American economy after a protracted period of quarantine restrictions.

 The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish its interest rate decision tomorrow and hold a press conference. As before, the Australian regulator is not expected to change the vector of its monetary policy, but the comments of its representatives will be very important.

 Support and Resistance

 Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is approaching its highs rapidly, which reflects risks of overbought AUD in the ultra-short term.

 Resistance levels: 0.7636, 0.7662, 0.7721, 0.7770.

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7562, 0.7531, 0.7500.

 Trading Tips

 To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7636. Take-profit – 0.7721. Stop-loss – 0.7590. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

 A rebound from 0.7636 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.7600 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 0.7531. Stop-loss – 0.7636.

 Scenario

 Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Buy Stop

Entry Point: 0.7640

Take Profit: 0.7721

Stop Loss: 0.7590

Key Levels: 0.7500, 0.7531, 0.7562, 0.7600, 0.7636, 0.7662, 0.7721, 0.7770

 Alternative Scenario

 Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Sell

Entry Point: 0.7599

Take Profit: 0.7531

Stop Loss: 0.7636

Key Levels: 0.7500, 0.7531, 0.7562, 0.7600, 0.7636, 0.7662, 0.7721, 0.7770


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