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AUDUSD Fundamental Analysis Report 04 May 2021

AUDUSD Fundamental Analysis Report 04 May 2021

Current trend: Bank of Australia rhetoric encourages investors

The AUD/USD pair is correcting, trading at 0.7738. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged: the interest rate will be 0.10%, as well as the yield on three-year government bonds. In his follow-up speech, the Governor of the regulator Philip Lowe again noted the significant pace of economic recovery in the country. The employment rate of the population steadily increased, which led to a decrease in unemployment to 5.6%, and the number of employed citizens of the country already exceeds the pre-crisis level. In this regard, the RBA has again revised its outlook for the near future towards improvement. Now, economic growth is expected to be within 4.75% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. 

USD is traded without pronounced dynamics. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector were published in the US yesterday, amounting to 60.7 points in April, which is significantly lower than projected 65 points, as well as 64.7 points in March. In addition, the employment index in this sector of the economy also decreased: the indicator dropped to 55.1 points, which is significantly lower than 59.6 points in March. 

Support and Resistance 

On the global chart, the price continues to form a correction. Technical indicators are in a state of purchase: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator started narrowing, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the positive zone. 

·         Resistance levels: 0.7814, 0.7975.

·         Support levels: 0.7692, 0.7561. 

Trading Tips 

If the asset reverses and declines and the price consolidates below the support at 0.7692, short positions can be opened with the target at 0.7561. Stop-loss – 0.7750. Implementation time: 4 days.

If the asset continues growing and the price consolidates above the local resistance at 0.7814, long positions will be relevant with target at 0.7975. Stop-loss – 0.7750.


 Timeframe: Intraday

Recommendation: Sell Stop

Entry Point: 0.7692

Take Profit: 0.7561

Stop Loss: 0.7750 

Key Levels: 0.7561, 0.7692, 0.7814, 0.7975

 Alternative Scenario

 Timeframe: Intraday 

Recommendation: Buy Stop

Entry Point: 0.7814

Take Profit: 0.7975 

Stop Loss: 0.7750

Key Levels: 0.7561, 0.7692, 0.7814, 0.7975

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